THE ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, both significant producers of wheat and other food items, coupled with supply chain constraints that already existed prior to the war, is wreaking havoc with food prices globally.

       This has thrust food security into the top agenda of most governments around the world.

       As a result, at least 30 countries have imposed export bans on various food items, according to Fitch Solutions head of commodities Sabrin Chowdhury.

       This week, Malaysia joined the bandwagon by banning exports of chicken until its production and prices stabilise.

       India, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Serbia have halted wheat exports given that the price of the grain surged this year.

       Exports of vegetable oils have also been restricted by countries such as Kuwait, Kosovo, and Algeria.

       Turkey has banned various exports of animal meat such as beef, mutton and goat as well as butter and cooking oil.

       Iran has also stopped exports of various vegetables such as potatoes, eggplant, tomatoes and onions until the end of this year, while Tunisia has halted exports of fruits alongside vegetables.

       Last week, United Nations (UN) secretary general Antonio Guterres told the security council that the Russia-Ukraine war has led to a huge drop in food exports and price increases of up to 30% for staple foods and that poses the threat of hunger across Africa and the Middle East region.

       India, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Serbia have halted wheat exports given that the price of the grain surged this year.

       With food prices already high due to supply disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and weather disruptions last year, the cascading effects of the war has made the global food markets situation from bad to worse.

       Fitch Solutions’ Chowdhury says agricultural protectionism has been at the highest level since the food crisis in 2007 and 2008.

       Recall that the food crisis back in 2007-2008 period was driven by poor wheat crops in Australia, strong demand for biofuels, high energy prices, a weak US dollar and growing demand in developing economies such as China.

       Many countries during that period also imposed export restrictions.

       This time around though things are worse off. The International Food Policy Research Institute foresees that more countries will impose export restrictions.

       “Thus this is a dangerous moment. Such measures benefit those in domestic markets, but at the expense of net food importing countries,” it cautions.

       Last week, the Group of Seven of industrialised nations warned of the possibility of a global hunger crisis unless Russia ends the war in Ukraine.

       Although most of the countries’ ban on food exports are until the end of this year, the UN cautions that food availability could still be a key concern for countries in 2023.

       UN’s Guterres says “no country is immune” to the possibility of facing a food crisis, although he singled out a few countries in Africa and Middle East.

       Exports of vegetable oils have also been restricted by countries such as Kuwait, Kosovo, and Algeria.

       Rising populations is also one of the key factors to issues of food security, points out MIDF Research head of research Imran Yassin Md Yusof.

       To ensure that this does not put an undue burden on food security, he says spending on the food industry and agriculture sector to gross domestic product-ratio should rise for every country.

       Imran adds that governments globally can reduce dependency on imported food products and increase domestic food output via targeted incentives for farmers.

       “An effective tax regime should also be in place to ensure a sustainable fiscal position to continue supporting the population needs,” he shares.

       Another way to overcome food insecurity in countries is by promoting farming that is less labour and resource intensive which would result in sustainable food production, says Julia Goh who is a senior economist at UOB.

       “For countries that do not have sufficient domestic supplies of food, food insecurity would become a serious issue both socially and economically,” adds Goh.

       So which countries would be hit the hardest?

       According to Ernst & Young Consulting Sdn Bhd business consulting partner Mohd Husin Mohd Nor, developing countries will feel the pinch hardest as most of the global population that faces food security problems and self-sufficiency woes live in developing countries.

       “The Covid-19 pandemic and economic slowdown have further disrupted food supply chains and aggravated the situation in these countries.

       “Inherently, these circumstances have also widened the inequality gap for food security,” he says.

       United Nations (UN) secretary general Antonio Guterres told the security council that the Russia-Ukraine war has led to a huge drop in food exports and price increases of up to 30% for staple foods and that poses the threat of hunger across Africa and the Middle East region.

       In essence, Mohd Husin points out that inequality contributes to “hunger, food insecurity and poor nutrition,” especially in rural areas, where poverty rates are typically three to five times higher than in urban areas.

       As such, he explains that tackling issues such as poverty and structural inequalities across the food value chain will be imperative to address the inequalities in the context of food security.

       Another way for countries to address food insecurity is by diversifying the country’s food production towards nutritious food and promoting sustainable agricultural practices by redirecting consumption patterns towards healthier diets, he says.

       “Food voucher programmes or direct subsidy transfers for vulnerable groups would also enable access to nutritious food and agricultural insurance.

       “Influencing consumer behaviour toward healthier dietary habits by regulating food marketing and creating green food zones to promote nutritional food choices is also one of the ways to address the food security issue,” shares the consultant.

       Nonetheless, Mohd Husin cautions that challenges in ensuring stable food security around the world will be driven by climate variability, political conflicts, high food prices and consumer dietary habits, among others.

       Hence, he reckons that future planning of policies must immediately look into providing support to those most in need via targeted funding, subsidies, price regulation and awareness programmes on nutrition and healthy dietary needs as well as mid to long-term efforts on structural changes.

       “Thus, close cooperation and coordination among policy makers, publicand private organisations as well as non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and non-profit organisations (NPOs) across global, regional and national levels are of paramount importance,” notes Mohd Husin.

       In the post-pandemic era, MIDF’s Imran believes that fiscal space and fund availability for countries are among key challenges for food security.

       “So sufficiency needs to be addressed as public funds were used for medical and economic assistance during the pandemic,” he says.

       Most importantly, global organisations stress the need to end the war between Russia and Ukraine which would mitigate the heightened food insecurities of countries.

       Guterres called on the Security Council to do everything in its power “to silence the guns and promote peace, in Ukraine and everywhere”.

       “Any meaningful solution to global food insecurity requires reintegrating Ukraine’s agricultural production and the food and fertiliser production of Russia and Belarus into world markets – despite the war,” said Guterres.