JAPAN has been trying for a long time to kindle a fairly modest amount of inflation – and pioneered radical monetary policies in a strenuous effort to succeed.

       Now, with an assist from a global surge in prices, Covid-generated bottlenecks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country might just be making progress.

       Whatever you do, don’t tell the public.

       Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda got an abrupt reminder this week of how hard it is to manage reflation in practice.

       For the temerity of suggesting that households’ “tolerance of price rises has been increasing” – which might not be such a bad thing, after decades of flirting with deflation – he was forced to recant amid a public outcry.

       Kuroda has spent years complaining about the “deflationary mindset” that’s held Japan back.

       In his speech Monday, he cited a recent survey conducted by the University of Tokyo suggesting that shoppers, who once would have switched retailers in the face of rising prices, are increasingly willing to grin and bear it.

       What grated the public was the implication that they were opting to go along with rising costs of essential items.

       One hashtag trending on Twitter translated as “I don’t accept price rises”.

       Lawmakers hauled Kuroda over the coals. “I didn’t necessarily say it in an appropriate way,” he said in a parliamentary hearing Tuesday.

       The fracas shows that the resolution of what has been one of Japan’s biggest economic headaches is a delicate matter.

       It also points to a worrying disconnect between elite policy prescriptions and the festering unease of many Japanese who just want to pay the bills and keep a roof over their heads.

       Household expectations of higher inflation have long been considered a key ingredient in breaking a pattern of negative psychology, along with solid wage gains.

       The first appears to be here; the second has yet to kick in. This was always going to be a tricky phase for the BoJ in its long and sometimes contentious quest to vanquish anemic economic conditions.

       The painful part was expected to precede the reward because, for a long time, employers and unions haven’t had much incentive to agree on big pay rises.

       Prices hadn’t really budged enough to warrant them.

       The trouble for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is that citizens vote; economic models don’t.

       Despite the premier’s record polling figures, the electorate overwhelmingly say they’re unhappy with the steps the government has taken to tackle inflation, with 61% of those polled in a recent Nikkei survey expressing their dissatisfaction with the premier’s efforts – up 10% from the previous month.

       Kuroda’s remarks also struck many as tone-deaf because he was paid around eight times the average salary last year.

       It’s not like inflation is out of control in Japan.

       Far from it.

       Consumer prices rose 2.1% in April from a year earlier, finally reaching the BoJ’s target.

       Kuroda wants to see inflation settle around that level on a sustainable basis.

       He was at pains in his speech Monday to emphasise that he isn’t close to dismantling monetary stimulus, and to draw distinctions between Japan and the United States and Europe, where inflation is far higher.

       After a generation of ultra-low prices, Kuroda may not have appreciated how hard it is for Japanese to embrace something they haven’t had to deal with.

       Shoppers saw a 12% rise in the cost of fresh fish and vegetables in April, including a nearly 100% increase in the cost of onions.

       Talk about eye watering.

       While Japanese households may not want to hear it, they are better placed than their counterparts in many countries.

       Stagflation, several years of above-average inflation and sub-par growth, is very real danger for big parts of the global economy, the World Bank warned Tuesday.

       And unlike US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, Kuroda hasn’t been forced to constantly say he was wrong for predicting inflation would be “transitory.”

       Inflation was the subject of a no-confidence motion against Kishida, an annual ritual of little significance submitted by the main opposition party that’s intended to highlight the leader’s main perceived weakness.

       But the focus on prices is something Kishida could do without at a time when, due to impending power shortages, the government is calling on people not to fill their fridges and for families to gather around one television while turning off power in other rooms.

       After a lifetime in public service, Kuroda is confronting an uncomfortable reality. While some level of modest inflation may be desirable for an economy overall, it can hit individuals hard.

       The underlying thrust of Japanese monetary policy over the better part of three decades has been to crank up inflation from dangerously low levels. How galling that Japan may not even want it. — Bloomberg

       Daniel Moss and Gearoid Reidy write for Bloomberg. The views expressed here are the writers’ own.