The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global watchdog for combatting money laundering and terrorist financing, is expected to announce today (Friday) whether Pakistan will be removed from or retained on its increased monitoring list, also known as the "grey list", but the government is hopeful the outcome will be in the country's favour.
The four-day plenary session began in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday. FATF officials will hold a press conference at 7:30pm today to share the outcome of the session, according to the watchdog's website.
Delegates representing 206 FATF members and observers are attending the plenary session. The observers include the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Egmont Group of Financial Intelligence Units.
Read: There and back again — A timeline of Pakistan's unfortunate 'grey listing' by FATF
A spokesperson for the government told BBC Urdu that the outcome was expected to be in Pakistan's favour according to information available at the moment. He clarified, however, that even if the country was removed from the list, it would take seven to eight months to "settle matters".
If Pakistan exited the list, a FATF team would visit the country so it "satisfy itself that work on its recommendations has been completed", the spokesperson added.
Diplomatic sources earlier told Dawn that China and some other allies are quietly working to get Pakistan off the grey list latest during the latest plenary session.
Recent reports in the international media also mentioned this "quiet lobbying", led by China, and one Indian media outlet reported that the plenary session "is likely to decide to move Pakistan out from the list of countries under increased monitoring, commonly known as its grey list".
Several politicians, mostly from the PTI, and journalists posted on social media today that the FATF had removed Pakistan from the grey list. However, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, who is leading Pakistan's delegation in Berlin, cautioned that prejudging the outcome and speculative reporting should be avoided.
She pointed out that the plenary meetings were still ongoing and the FATF would issue a statement tonight after their conclusion.
She added that a press conference would be held at the foreign ministry on Saturday (tomorrow) in this regard.
Information Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb also called for an end to speculations about the plenary session's outcomes, terming them inappropriate.
Four years on the 'grey list'
Pakistan has been on the grey list since June 2018.
Sources told Dawn that an April 9 judgement by an anti-terrorism court in Lahore could also help Pakistan in removing this stigma. The court sent Lashkar-e-Tayyaba chief Hafiz Saeed to prison for 33 years on terrorism charges.
Those who support the move to remove Pakistan from the list point out that the two cases that led to his imprisonment were filed by Pakistan's Counter Terrorism Department.
In its last plenary, held in Paris in March, the FATF noted that "Pakistan has completed 26 of the 27 action items in its 2018 action plan". The FATF encouraged Pakistan "to address, as soon as possible, the one remaining item, — investigating terrorism financing and targeting" senior leaders and commanders of UN-designated terrorist groups.
FATF acknowledged that Pakistan had also met six of the seven action plans it was asked to follow in June 2021 to counter money laundering.
For the latest plenary session, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had prepared a presentation for the FATF plenary, showing how Pakistan has completed all the 27 tasks that it was given.
How is a country removed from the list?
According to the FATF website, a country needs to complete all or nearly all of the components of its action plan in order to be removed from the monitoring list. Once the global watchdog has determined that a country has completed the components, it will schedule an on-site visit to "confirm that the implementation of the necessary legal, regulatory, and/or operational reforms is under way and there is the necessary political commitment and institutional capacity to sustain implementation".
If there is a positive outcome of the visit, the FATF would decide on removing the country from public identification at the next plenary.
The country would continue to work on improving its anti-money laundering and counter terror financing regimes through the FATF's normal follow-up process.
PTI's 'success'
As speculation mounted on Pakistan's possible exit from the list, members of the former PTI cabinet, claimed credit for the purported development.
Former finance minister Shaukat Tarin said the "removal" was another feather in the cap of Hammad Azhar, who was the former energy minister and also the government's top coordinator for efforts on anti-money laundering and counter terror financing.
"Another success of PTI govt. #FATF #ThankYouImranKhan," tweeted former human rights minister Shireen Mazari.
Senator Ejaz Chaudhry said he hoped Pakistan would exit the grey list today, terming it the result of the Imran Khan-led government's work.
Chaudhry feared that the incumbent government would take credit for it.
The party's official Twitter account also said, "If we get on #FATF whitelist today, imported govt will probably try to take credit. But everyone must know that since regime change, there have been no laws related to FATF that they have passed, hence if this success on FATF comes, it will be another #ThankYouImranKhan event!"