Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email
Please enter a valid email address
Please enter a valid email address
SIGN UP
I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy notice
Thanks for signing up to the
View from Westminster email
{{ #verifyErrors }} {{ message }} {{ /verifyErrors }} {{ ^verifyErrors }} Something went wrong. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }}
Rishi Sunak faces three devastating by-election losses at the start of a general election year, top pollsters have predicted.
As the prime minister tries to rebuild momentum after a difficult few months, failure ahead of an expected autumn election would only increase fears of electoral wipeout for the Tories, who are currently trailing by 18 points.
Contests in Kingswood and Wellingborough have been confirmed for February 15, while a by-election in Blackpool South to replace Scott Benton looms pending him appealing his 35-day suspension from parliament.
Professor Sir John Curtice, Britain’s most respected polling expert, told The Independent that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is the favourite to win all three.
Sir Keir Starmer will hope to pick up three additional seats from the Conservatives
" srcset="https://static.independent.co.uk/2024/01/10/19/Sunak%20split%20copy%202.jpg?quality=75&width=320&auto=webp 320w, https://static.independent.co.uk/2024/01/10/19/Sunak%20split%20copy%202.jpg?quality=75&width=640&auto=webp 640w" src="https://static.independent.co.uk/2024/01/10/19/Sunak%20split%20copy%202.jpg" data-gallery-length="4" class="i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content" pinger-seen="true">
Sir Keir Starmer will hope to pick up three additional seats from the Conservatives
( AP/PA)
RECOMMENDED
Trump roasted by Stephen Colbert for fraud trial rant
Undo
CNN conducts lengthy fact check after Trump’s misleading post-hearing rant
Undo
URUHIME MOMOKO
A woman in her 40s drank "Ceramide" and her skin became…URUHIME MOMOKO| Sponsored Sponsored
Undo
Superfood Reviews
Do This Everyday to Ease Eczema Flare-UpsSuperfood Reviews| Sponsored Sponsored
Undo
Powered by Taboola Powered by Taboola
The Tories have a majority of 18,540 in Wellingborough, where Peter Bone was forced out after an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct. The disgraced MP’s partner Helen Harrison is standing in his place.
Of the upcoming contests, it is the Tories’ best shot at securing a win, and Professor Curtice said it should be a “minimum target”.
But in a damning assessment of the Conservatives’ electoral prospects, he said: “Wellingborough may be no more than a 50-50 shot [for the Conservatives]”.
Promoted stories
Anti Aging | Search Ads
Top Anti-Ageing And Facelift Creams: The Ranking Will Surprise YouAnti Aging | Search Ads
Undo
by Taboola by Taboola
Sponsored Links Sponsored Links
Promoted Links Promoted Links
Even if Mr Sunak’s party does pull off a victory, Professor Curtice said a narrow win would “not make me think there has been a fundamental change”. If the party loses, he said the Conservatives are heading for disaster.
“You should not be able to get that good odds-on Labour to win all three seats,” he added.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said in normal times the Tories scraping by in Wellingborough would signal “something deeply worrying and wrong” for the party.
But after a series of historic by-election defeats for the party last year, Mr Tryl said Labour would be disappointed with anything other than a win.
He told The Independent that the Tories are on course to lose Wellingborough, Kingswood and Blackpool South to Labour.
Peter Bone lost his seat in parliament and his girlfriend is standing in the by-election to replace him
(Fabio De Paola/Shutterstock)
Mr Bone was kicked out from his Wellingborough seat after five claims of bullying and one of disturbing sexual misconduct were upheld against him. In one incident indecently exposed himself to a staff member and trapped him in the bathroom of a hotel room.
The Tories nominated Ms Harrison, a local councillor, to replace him. Mr Tryl said the choice would “make it even more like swimming upstream”.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at polling company Savanta, said Tory voters will “not be impressed” with Ms Harrison’s selection given her association with Mr Bone.
He agreed that the Conservatives were expected to lose all three seats at the upcoming by-elections, but could win back Wellingborough at the general election.
Mr Hopkins said a triple by-election drubbing would derail any hopes of Mr Sunak gaining momentum before an autumn general election, especially if the Tories struggle in local elections in May.
“It is really difficult, at the minute, to see how the Conservative Party will turn this round… It’s going to take a lot more than Mr Sunak’s umpteenth reset,” he added.
If the Tories lose Kingswood and Wellingborough on February 15, it would be Mr Sunak’s third double defeat in just a year.
Alistair Strathern became Mid Bedfordshire’s first Labour MP when he replaced former culture secretary Nadine Dorries last October
(PA)
Last July he lost Selby & Ainsty to Labour and Somerton & Frome to the Liberal Democrats in historic swings. And in October, Mr Sunak lost both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire to Labour, with Mid Bedfordshire voting Labour for the first time in its history.
Tory pollster Lord Hayward said the slew of by-elections was “a reflection of the internal wars of the Tory party” between 2020 and 2022.
And he said a key test in the upcoming by-elections will be whether there is any sign of voters put off by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss returning to the party.
Lord Hayward told The Independent that each seat presents a challenge to the Tories, but “the one Tory HQ will be most focused on is Wellingborough”.
Despite Labour’s by-election successes under Sir Keir, Lord Hayward pointed to low turnout which shows “people are not committed to any particular political party at the moment”.
And the former MP said the by-elections will show whether people are beginning to feel the impact of inflation slowing, and “accepting [Mr Sunak’s] financial managerial competence”.
Former Tory MP Chris Skidmore, whose resignation in protest at the PM’s oil and gas policies sparked the Kingswood by-election, has warned the party faces its “toughest by-election fight so far” in his seat.
In 2019, the Conservatives secured a majority of 18,000 in Wellingborough and 11,000 in Kingswood – the sort of majorities that Labour has overturned in several by-elections in the past year.
More about Rishi Sunak Prime Minister Wellingborough Blackpool Parliament
Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
149Comments
1/ 4Rishi Sunak faces triple by-election washout, polling gurus warn
Rishi Sunak faces triple by-election washout, polling gurus warn
Sir Keir Starmer will hope to pick up three additional seats from the Conservatives
AP/PA
Rishi Sunak faces triple by-election washout, polling gurus warn
Peter Bone lost his seat in parliament and his girlfriend is standing in the by-election to replace him
Fabio De Paola/Shutterstock
Rishi Sunak faces triple by-election washout, polling gurus warn
Alistair Strathern became Mid Bedfordshire’s first Labour MP when he replaced former culture secretary Nadine Dorries last October
PA
Rishi Sunak faces triple by-election washout, polling gurus warn
PA
Promoted stories
8days
Rebecca Lim shared very important news8days| Sponsored Sponsored
Read More
Undo
Hair’s Rich
Watsons-bought "Japan's hair growth gel" worked so wellHair’s Rich| Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Medline Reviews
How I Finally Slept After Struggling with Insomnia for YearsShocking benefits of ashwagandha for insomnia: how my sleep quality improved.Medline Reviews| Sponsored Sponsored
Shop Now
Undo
Read More Comments
Collapse Comments
？ Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Subscribe
Already subscribed? Log in