Shock new analysis shows Labour needs a record breaking win to secure the keys to No.10 (Image: Getty)
Rishi Sunak has been given hope he can avert a General Election drubbing with new analysis showing Labour needs a historic swing to win. The party's path to power has been made more difficult by extensive boundary changes.
Sir Keir Starmer will have to achieve a swing of 12.7 points from the Tories to become prime minister, according to the new research. This is larger than the 10.2 point swing Sir Tony Blair managed in his 1997 landslide and more than double the swing at any other election since 1945.
His task is made harder by the impact of the first boundary changes since 2010, which aim to ensure constituencies have similar voter numbers. The new parliamentary constituencies were drawn up by the permanent and independent Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Fewer than 12 percent of the 650 Commons seats were left untouched.
Powered By
00:00/01:09
10
10
dx Strictly's Layton Williams breaks silence on 'heartbreaking' loss
Share
Next
Stay
READ MORE Boris Johnson bids for ￡30,000 prop from The Crown
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said earlier this month his working assumption was for a General Election in the second half of this year. A date in October or November is considered by some to be most likely.
Analysis by professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggests the boundary changes give the PM a modest boost. They compiled notional results for what would have happened at the last General Election in 2019 had it been fought using the new constituencies.
They said: "Broadly speaking this reflects a pattern where the east, south east and south west of England have gained seats reflecting the increase in electorates, and Wales has lost them, following the implementation of the new rules.
"The overall impact is that the Conservatives will be defending a notional majority of 94 at the next General Election compared with the 80 majority they actually achieved in 2019.
"The Conservatives have made a net gain of seven seats from the new boundaries. Labour has a net loss of two seats. The Liberal Democrats lose three seats and Plaid Cymru drops from four seats to just two."
Don't miss...
Lee Anderson breaks silence on reason he is backing Rwanda rebel amendments [REPORT]
Keir Starmer urged to oust Labour MPs with links to radical pro-Palestinia group [LATEST]
Hunt urged to scrap 'critical' tax that hits thousands of vulnerable Brits [REVEALED]
Sir Keir Starmer needs a record-breaking win to get into Downing Street (Image: Getty)
The changes mean England is allocated 543 seats, an increase of 10. Wales will have 32 seats, a reduction of eight. Scotland will have 57, down two. Northern Ireland remains unchanged with 18.
Despite the cut in the number of seats in Scotland, the SNP remain on 48 seats. There is no change in Northern Ireland, with the DUP on eight, Sinn Fein seven, SDLP on two and Alliance on one.
The four Boundary Commissions were obliged to ensure the new constituencies have an electorate within five percent of 73,392, which is the total number of voters on March 2, 2020, divided by 650, the number of Commons seats.
This gives all constituencies between 69,724 and 77,062 voters with just five "island seats" exempt: Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Islands) in Scotland, Ynys Mon (Anglesey) in north Wales and the two seats allocated to the Isle of Wight.
The Conservatives won 365 seats in the snap 2019 December election, with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour on 203, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 80, and 162 over Labour.
While the number of Conservative MPs is now down to 349, partly because of by-elections, that makes no difference to the calculations for the General Election, which are based solely on the notional results.
Become an Express Premium member Support fearless journalism Read The Daily Express online, advert free Get super-fast page loading
Start 30-day
FREE trial
Trending
Rishi Sunak has said his 'working assumption' is for an election in the second half of this year (Image: Getty)
After the 2019 election, a direct swing of seven percentage points from the Conservatives was needed for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament, and the boundary changes mean this rises to 8.3 percentage points.
For an overall majority, Sir Keir's 12.7 point requirement is up from 12 on the old boundaries, and any uniform swing from Conservatives to Labour greater than 4.2 and less than 12.7 is likely to produce a hung parliament.
DON'T MISS
Powered by
Disaster for Rishi Sunak as pollster warns Tories are 'haemorrhaging' votes to Reform UK
81 Comments
Who is Morgan McSweeney? Keir Starmer's election guru you've never heard of
22 Comments
Andrea Jenkyns in rallying cry to Tories to submit no-confidence letters in Rishi Sunak
192 Comments
The Rwanda bill is do-or-die for Rishi Sunak, says Tim Newark
6 Comments
Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage's Reform UK will do 'most damage' to Rishi Sunak
278 Comments
Lib Dems in meltdown over GB News attacks on Sir Ed Davey as they demand Ofcom probe
791 Comments
POLL: When should Rishi Sunak call a general election? Vote here
317 Comments
The 40 countries whose elections will change the face of the world in 2024
4 Comments
Rishi Sunak has 48 hours to save his job as Prime Minister with Rwanda Bill rebellion
658 Comments
Rishi Sunak's nightmare start to election year with first poll confirming Tory wipeout
152 Comments
Labour MP issues damning verdict on Sir Keir Starmer's readiness to be PM
234 Comments
Deluded Humza Yousaf dreams of creating a 'Tory-free Scotland' as SNP plummets in polls
101 Comments
'Here's the truth of it': Nigel Farage makes dire Labour general election prediction
1745 Comments
POLL: Should Ed Davey hand back his knighthood?
105 Comments
Tories face 'worst election since 1997' as new poll reveals huge Labour majority
1190 Comments
Penny Mordaunt and Lee Anderson among Tory big beasts facing losing seats - poll
855 Comments
Nigel Farage issues stark warning Tories have no idea what is 'coming down track'
488 Comments
Rishi Sunak's top advisor blasts Lord Frost for 'undermining Tories' with shocking poll
101 Comments
Labour enter ‘next phase' of election campaign after devastating poll for Tories
118 Comments
Nadine Dorries launches furious three word attack on Rishi Sunak's Rwanda 'karma'
19 Comments
Disaster for Rishi Sunak as pollster warns Tories are 'haemorrhaging' votes to Reform UK
81 Comments
Who is Morgan McSweeney? Keir Starmer's election guru you've never heard of
22 Comments
Andrea Jenkyns in rallying cry to Tories to submit no-confidence letters in Rishi Sunak
192 Comments
The Rwanda bill is do-or-die for Rishi Sunak, says Tim Newark
6 Comments
Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage's Reform UK will do 'most damage' to Rishi Sunak
278 Comments
Lib Dems in meltdown over GB News attacks on Sir Ed Davey as they demand Ofcom probe
791 Comments
POLL: When should Rishi Sunak call a general election? Vote here
317 Comments
The 40 countries whose elections will change the face of the world in 2024
4 Comments
Rishi Sunak has 48 hours to save his job as Prime Minister with Rwanda Bill rebellion
658 Comments
Rishi Sunak's nightmare start to election year with first poll confirming Tory wipeout
152 Comments
Labour MP issues damning verdict on Sir Keir Starmer's readiness to be PM
234 Comments
Deluded Humza Yousaf dreams of creating a 'Tory-free Scotland' as SNP plummets in polls
101 Comments
'Here's the truth of it': Nigel Farage makes dire Labour general election prediction
1745 Comments
POLL: Should Ed Davey hand back his knighthood?
105 Comments
Tories face 'worst election since 1997' as new poll reveals huge Labour majority
1190 Comments
Penny Mordaunt and Lee Anderson among Tory big beasts facing losing seats - poll
855 Comments
Nigel Farage issues stark warning Tories have no idea what is 'coming down track'
488 Comments
Rishi Sunak's top advisor blasts Lord Frost for 'undermining Tories' with shocking poll
101 Comments
Labour enter ‘next phase' of election campaign after devastating poll for Tories
118 Comments
Nadine Dorries launches furious three word attack on Rishi Sunak's Rwanda 'karma'
19 Comments
Disaster for Rishi Sunak as pollster warns Tories are 'haemorrhaging' votes to Reform UK
81 Comments
Who is Morgan McSweeney? Keir Starmer's election guru you've never heard of
22 Comments
Andrea Jenkyns in rallying cry to Tories to submit no-confidence letters in Rishi Sunak
192 Comments
The Rwanda bill is do-or-die for Rishi Sunak, says Tim Newark
6 Comments
Pollster pinpoints where Nigel Farage's Reform UK will do 'most damage' to Rishi Sunak
278 Comments
Lib Dems in meltdown over GB News attacks on Sir Ed Davey as they demand Ofcom probe
791 Comments
POLL: When should Rishi Sunak call a general election? Vote here
317 Comments
However, focusing only on the direct swing between Conservatives and Labour makes the assumption there will be no change in the share votes cast for the other parties, which is highly unlikely to be true.
For instance, a 10 point swing from the SNP to Labour would give Sir Keir 15 gains under the new boundaries, easing his path to Downing Street, according to professors Rallings and Thrasher.
They compiled their notional results on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association news agency.
Related articles King Charles releases new official portrait and offers it to local authorities Brexit victory as massive company invests ￡200m after fearing Leave vote fallout Elton John gets EGOT status with Emmy win but missing after serious operation Travel chaos as heavy snow blast brings UK roads and railways to a standstill Two Rochdale grooming gang paedos still waiting to be deported 12 years on