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Myanmar’s parlous economy rooted in ruinous policies
2024-01-26 00:00:00.0     海峡时报-亚洲     原网页

       

       Synopsis: Every fourth Friday of the month, The Straits Times’ US Bureau Chief Nirmal Ghosh shines a light on Asian perspectives of global and Asian issues with expert guests.

       Myanmar’s economy grew only one per cent in fiscal 2023-2024, but its illicit economy - long a feature of its borderlands in particular - has been thriving. Recent crackdowns by China’s proxies indicate the level of concern in China as cybercrime syndicates in particular prey on Chinese people.

       Your browser does not support iframes, but you can use the following link: <a href="https://omny.fm/shows/asian-insider-1/myanmar-s-parlous-economy-rooted-in-ruinous-polici/embed" title="">Link</a><script>iFrameResize({ log: false }, '#iframe-field_embed_iframe-8151571')</script>

       This parlous state which has possibly half the population of 53 million living just one step from disaster. It is being driven by poor policy as the military junta has been taking a command economy approach in order to survive, and is using the country’s foreign reserves, to survive and cling to power, contends Professor Sean Turnell, former economic advisor to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the former State Councillor, now in jail, who held office from 2016 until the military coup of February 2021.

       Myanmar has however always had a tradition of transnational crime syndicates, initially in narcotics production and more recently in synthetic narcotics. Opium cultivation is also creeping back up, while new areas such as cybercrime have emerged. The military regime is not entirely to be blamed for this tradition, as many of the areas concerned have been controlled for decades by ethnic armies which essentially make a living from the informal or illicit economy.

       Meanwhile Myanmar has seen an unprecedented coalescing of ethnic armed organizations into effective alliances, which is very different from the fragmented resistance to the military of the past. Yet while the military has lost ground, a total collapse and fragmentation of the country is not as imminent as some commentators may believe; before that occurs, there is quite likely to be a reshuffle at the top of the ranks of the regime.

       Professor Turnell, alongside veteran journalist, author and broadcaster Dr Michael Vatikiotis, spoke to Asian Insider host Nirmal Ghosh on this episode to unravel the complexities of Myanmar’s crisis.

       Highlights (click/tap above):

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       1:33 Why is Myanmar’s economy performing poorly?

       3:38 Recently, there has been an unprecedented coalescing of ethnic armed organisations into effective alliances, different from historic fragmented resistance to the military in the past

       7:00 Recent crackdowns by China’s proxies indicate the level of concern about Myanmar’s transnational crime syndicates, as these prey especially on the Chinese

       8:47 Can the military regime be completely blamed for this too? Many of the areas controlled by ethnic armies have essentially made a living from the informal or illicit economy

       14:40 Tremendously deep, long lasting levels of mistrust between constituent elements; is the younger generation leading the revolution impressive?

       Produced by: Nirmal Ghosh (nirmal@sph.com.sg) and Fa’izah Sani

       Edited by: Fa’izah Sani

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