Cameron promises to strengthen Argentina ties to stop Milei 'pressing Falklands button' (Image: Getty)
For nearly two decades, diplomatic relations between Britain and Argentina have been strained, after a succession of left wing Peronist governments sought to apply more pressure over the Falklands issue. But now London is preparing to offer Buenos Aires more favourable trade terms, as a new right-wing government under the populist President Javier Milei heralds the start of a fresh era.
In 2013, former PM David Cameron endured a heated exchange with Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, when the pair crossed paths in the corridors of the G20 Summit in Mexico.
Last week, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron and President Milei embraced the chance for a photo op at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland.
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Argentina's Milei was elected on December 10, 2023 (Image: Getty)
The “warm and cordial” meeting set out mutual support for a more constructive relationship between both countries, said an FCDO source.
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And there are very good reasons why this is in the UK’s interests.
Milei’s surprise election success in December was seen as a hammer blow to the “pink tide” which covers most of South America’s left wing governments.
Crucially, Milei is no supporter of China, withdrawing Argentina from negotiations to join Brics, the intergovernmental organization which includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, and Iran, and vowing during his campaign that Argentina would “not align itself with Communists'.
To that end. Britain sees Milei’s fledgling government as one of the continent’s main bulwarks against Chinese influence.
But tensions over the Falklands are also at play, sources say.
While both Cameron and Milei publicly “agreed to disagree” over the islands, privately the Argentine president is expected to leave the matter simmering on low heat while he tackles painful economic challenges.
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Argentina is currently sitting on 200 percent inflation and £370bn of debt - incurred by previous socialist governments delivering an over generous social welfare programme - of which £100bn is owed to the International Monetary Fund.
The IMFs’ recent and surprise loan of a further £4.3bn was dependent on drastic action being taken to rectify the economy,
Severe austerity measures - said to be inspired, in part, by Lord Cameron’s 2010 legacy - have already been rolled out, resulting in mass protests which threaten to paralyse Buenos Aires.
The aim now , Whitehall sources say, is for Britain to do what it can to help Milei reach his economic targets, giving him less reason to “press the Falklands button”.
UK-Argentina trade was worth a record £2.2bn last year - a 22 per cent hike over the year before.
Around £900 million of that was exports to Argentina such as mechanical power generators and refined oil, while £1.3 billion was imports like animal feed, beverages and tobacco.
With Argentina remaining the UK’s 66th largest trading partner, there is scope to gamble, and Whitehall is keen to open markets , reduce trade barriers and find new opportunities.
A meeting at ministerial level between both countries is expected soon to thrash out details.
Speaking last night regional expert Dr Alasdair Pinkerton, of Royal Holloway, University of London, said: "I suspect both men are walking into talks with eyes open, when it comes to the Falklands.
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"Helping Argentina economically may translate to a Milei's voters lulung upon the UK more favorability.And it could also help to grease the wheels within Mercosur (the South American trading bloc) where the UK seks more opportunities for trade deals."
He added: "Argentina claims over the Falklands have either come under Kirchner administrations, or when governments have used the issue to distract the populace from economic difficulties. British efforts to normalize relations with Argentina and to try to ensure that its economy does no worse will certainly help to mitigate this."
Sydney Stewart, lead Americas analyst for the Sibylline strategic risk group, said: "If Milei fails to deliver economic reforms, he is going to need to look for another issue , and there is no doubt that he is keeping the Falklands in his back pocket.
"But while UK trade inducements would amount to a drop in the bucket given the scale of Argentina's economic crisis, showing that he can negotiate good trade terms from the UK may play well for MIlei among Argentine voters. "
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