This Morning hosts quiz Rishi Sunak over general election

       A major new survey of activists who were registered Conservative Party members in November 2022 when Rishi Sunak became leader has revealed that half would consider voting for Reform UK at the next election.

       Express.co.uk has been given exclusive access to a survey by the Conservative Post of 2,086 people who the website has stated were verified by CCHQ as being Tory members in 2022 when Boris Johnson was deposed as leader.

       The survey of Tories from across the UK carried out on January 29 and 31, is approximately three times bigger than the ConHome poll carried out each month for most popular members of the Cabinet.

       The findings have underlined enormous discontent in parts of the Tory party as well as identifying that activists thinking of switching their vote want one of three people to be leader.

       It comes amid concerns that the party could be facing a wipeout at the next general election with less than 100 seats. Meanwhile two key by-elections on February 15 in Wellingborough and Kingswood are being framed as "a referendum on the Sunak government".

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       A lot of Tory members want Boris Johnson back (Image: Getty)

       Rishi Sunak as leader

       While former Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke's call for Mr Sunak to quit last month did not receive any public support from his colleagues in Parliament, the survey suggests that there is an appetite for change among the membership who were denied an opportunity to vote for Mr Sunak as leader after Liz Truss was forced to resign.

       The survey findings revealed:

       Only 23.63 percent say they will vote Conservative at the next General Election if Rishi Sunak is still leader.

       90.10 percent will not be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead-up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister.

       68.95 percent would support the party getting a new leader before the next General Election if it could be done quickly.

       71.74 percent think the Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election with a new leader.

       The findings seems to suggest Suella Braverman has huge support among party members (Image: Getty)

       The attraction of Reform UK

       Even without Nigel Farage returning to frontline politics there also appears to be evidence that Tory members have already switched their allegiance to Reform UK with Richard Tice as leader. The survey showed:

       If an election was called today 50.48 percent of members would vote for Reform UK.

       15.95 percent of the Tory members from 2022 surveyed say they have already joined Reform UK.

       75.5 percent want Nigel Farage to become a Conservative member.

       There are also concerns about the current direction of the party. The survey shows:

       90 percent think the Conservative Party is not currently conservative enough.

       62 percent think the top priority for the Government over the next 12 months should be reducing illegal immigration.

       92.09 percent currently feel the party has been hijacked by non-members.

       Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg is the second most popular choice for leader (Image: Getty)

       Leadership options

       From a list of alternative leaders, only four have a net positive rating with the survey showing a strong desire for Boris Johnson to come back among members.

       Asked if they would vote Conservative with the following people as leader, Mr Johnson came top with 85.37 percent yes followed by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg on 69.51 percent and Suella Braverman on 65.38 percent.

       The only other option to get a net positive was Dame Priti Patel with 47.36 percent yes above her 41.5 percent no.

       The survey is bad news for two of the frontrunners in the ConHome polls Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt who both rate as net negatives.

       Ms Badenoch, whose support for Brexit has been questioned and has angered Boris Johnson supporters by playing a part in his ousting, is 46.36 percent no to 43.38 percent yes. Ms Mordaunt is 47.7 no to 42.62 percent yes.

       The least popular were Lord Cameron with 75.6 percent no, and James Cleverly with 68.02 percent no.

       Kemi Badenoch comes up with a net negative as choice for next leader (Image: Getty)

       What inspired the survey

       Conservative Post editor Claire Bullivant, herself a Tory activist, said: "A few weeks ago I was asked to go campaigning in Worcestershire. I was one of only two who turned up.

       "Not so long ago come rain or shine, there would have been the equivalent of at least a few football teams giving up their Sunday morning to pound the pavements with me. Not anymore.

       "I knew support for the party was waning, I hear it every day from my readers of the Conservative Post. But I made some calls and was astonished so many of the usual faces I see running events for my local association, stuffing envelopes, delivering leaflets, the really dedicated members that lived and breathed the party, had also laid down their tools. One who had supported the party for over 60 years told me: 'They expect my time, effort and money but not my opinions. I’m not helping anymore. I’ve had enough.'

       "I reached out to various Association Chairmans across the country and they all painted the same bleak picture. Members and local activists, the men and women who do so much to win us local and national elections, are on strike.

       "I believe, outside of CCHQ, the Conservative Post holds the largest database of Conservative Party members, so I decided to run this survey. It was open only to Conservative Party members (who were verified by CCHQ in November 2022) and was overseen by a very well-respected data analysist called Mike Rouse at Bluetorch Consulting who has run many data collection processes for the party. The results are fair, honest and speak for themselves.

       "I’m an eternal optimist and have tremendous faith in our party and the Conservative MPs to do the right thing. We need to win this next election. Just as the rest of the world is turning its back on socialism and moving towards the right, we don’t want to be stuck with socialists in power for the next five years here in the UK. We’re in the midst of an almighty storm. Let’s send out the lifeboats and bring the members back. It’s time to become proper conservatives again to save our party and our country.

       "But to do that, members are clear, we need a new leader."

       Three quarters of Tories surveyed want Nigel Farage to join the party (Image: Getty)

       The Findings:

       Have you ever campaigned for the Conservative Party?

       (Campaigning was defined in the survey as “knocking on doors, delivering leaflets, raising funds, helping out on polling day, etc.”)

       

No	62.97%
Yes	37.03%

       Will you be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister?

       

No	90.10%
Yes	9.90%

       Would you campaign for the Conservative Party in the lead up to the General Election if there was a new leader with more conservative values?

       

Yes	40.38%
Don't know	36.38%
No	23.24%

       If a new leader could be chosen quickly (within 7 days), would you support the party getting a new leader before the next General Election?

       

Yes	68.95%
Don't know	15.89%
No	15.17%

       Do you think the Conservative Party is currently conservative enough?

       

No	90.00%
Yes	5.84%
Don't know	4.15%

       Have you joined the Reform Party?

       

No	42.07%
Considering	41.98%
Yes	15.95%

       Do you think the Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election with a new leader?

       

Yes	71.74%
No	14.16%
Don't know	14.11%

       If a general election were called TODAY and you HAD to vote, which party would you vote for?

       

Reform UK	50.48%
Conservative	34.28%
Would not vote	13.04%
Another party not listed	0.77%
Liberal Democrat	0.67%
Labour	0.67%
Green	0.10%

       Table below shows how this is split by members who say they normally actively campaign for the Conservative Party and those that are members but don’t campaign.

       

Party Preference	Non-Campaigners	Campaigners
Another party not listed	0.69%	0.91%
Conservative	31.70%	38.80%
Green	0.08%	0.13%
Labour	0.84%	0.39%
Liberal Democrat	0.61%	0.78%
Reform UK	54.59%	43.36%
Would not vote	11.49%	15.63%

       Voting intentions by age group

       

Party Preference	Under 18	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65 or Above	Prefer Not to Answer
Another party not listed	0.00	0.00	6.67	0.00	1.23	1.58	0.40	0.00
Conservative	36.67	33.33	6.67	35.59	25.77	24.65	39.44	35.48
Green	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.08	0.00
Labour	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.23	0.59	0.72	0.00
Liberal Democrat	3.33	0.00	0.00	1.69	0.00	0.39	0.72	0.00
Reform UK	40.00	66.67	86.67	49.15	55.83	60.95	45.70	45.16
Would not vote	20.00	0.00	0.00	13.56	15.95	11.64	12.93	19.35

       Voting intentions by region

       

UK Region	Con	Lab	Lib	Green	Reform	Would not vote	Other
East Midlands	28.80%	-	1.05%	-	54.97%	15.18%	0.00%
East of England	37.22%	-	0.45%	-	51.12%	10.31%	0.90%
London	30.34%	0.69%	-	-	55.86%	11.72%	1.38%
North East	35.62%	-	-	-	56.16%	6.85%	1.37%
North West	29.70%	0.99%	0.99%	-	52.97%	15.35%	0.00%
Northern Ireland	25.00%	-	-	-	-	75.00%	25.00%
Scotland	45.57%	0.00%	-	-	47.47%	4.43%	2.53%
South East	36.54%	-	1.92%	0.24%	51.44%	9.62%	0.24%
South West	38.08%	0.71%	-	0.36%	47.69%	12.81%	0.36%
Wales	34.12%	1.18%	-	-	41.18%	23.53%	0.00%
West Midlands	39.88%	-	1.73%	-	47.98%	8.67%	1.73%
Yorkshire and The Humber	24.07%	1.85%	0.62%	-	53.09%	19.14%	1.23%

       Where Tory members who took part in the Conservative Post survey live (Image: Conservative Post)

       Age range of Conservative Post survey (Image: Conservative Post)

       Would you support a return of Nigel Farage to the Conservative Party?

       

Yes	75.55%
Not sure	13.57%
No	10.88%

       Which of the following do you think should be TOP priorities for the government over the next 12 months?

       

	Not a priority	Neutral or unsure	Priority
Reducing illegal immigration	25	58	1990
Tackling inflation	145	552	1293
Reducing NHS waiting lists	71	367	1581
Tackling too much wokeness	111	180	1747
Children's safety online	238	676	1063
National security	22	102	1934
Building new homes	498	800	680
Ending public sector strikes	208	529	1271
Education	207	766	1014
Cutting taxes	197	506	1315
Growing the economy	36	200	1793

       How important are the following priorities for the government over the next 12 months?

       

Reducing illegal immigration	Priority	96.00%
Reducing illegal immigration	Neutral or unsure	2.80%
Reducing illegal immigration	Not a priority	1.21%
Tackling inflation	Priority	64.97%
Tackling inflation	Neutral or unsure	27.74%
Tackling inflation	Not a priority	7.29%
Reducing NHS waiting lists	Priority	78.31%
Reducing NHS waiting lists	Neutral or unsure	18.18%
Reducing NHS waiting lists	Not a priority	3.52%
Tackling too much wokeness	Priority	85.72%
Tackling too much wokeness	Neutral or unsure	8.83%
Tackling too much wokeness	Not a priority	5.45%
Children's safety online	Priority	53.77%
Children's safety online	Neutral or unsure	34.19%
Children's safety online	Not a priority	12.04%
National security	Priority	93.97%
National security	Neutral or unsure	4.96%
National security	Not a priority	1.07%
Building new homes	Neutral or unsure	40.44%
Building new homes	Priority	34.38%
Building new homes	Not a priority	25.18%
Ending public sector strikes	Priority	63.30%
Ending public sector strikes	Neutral or unsure	26.34%
Ending public sector strikes	Not a priority	10.36%
Education	Priority	51.03%
Education	Neutral or unsure	38.55%
Education	Not a priority	10.42%
Cutting taxes	Priority	65.16%
Cutting taxes	Neutral or unsure	25.07%
Cutting taxes	Not a priority	9.76%
Growing the economy	Priority	88.37%
Growing the economy	Neutral or unsure	9.86%
Growing the economy	Not a priority	1.77%

       Which of these priorities would be your TOP priority?

       

Reducing illegal immigration	68.02%
Growing the economy	8.92%
National security	8.25%
Cutting taxes	4.31%
Reducing NHS waiting lists	3.26%
Tackling too much wokeness	3.21%
Tackling inflation	1.58%
Ending public sector strikes	0.81%
Building new homes	0.72%
Reducing carbon emissions	0.38%
Education	0.38%
Children’s safety online	0.14%

       As things stand will you vote Conservative at the next General Election with Rishi Sunak as leader?

       

No	57.43%
Yes	23.63%
Don't know	18.94%

       Would you vote Conservative at the next General Election with the following people as leader?

       

	No, I would not	Yes, I would
Liz Truss	997	899
Boris Johnson	250	1781
David Cameron	1577	292
Suella Braverman	562	1364
Priti Patel	867	988
Kemi Badenoch	967	905
Jacob Rees-Mogg	479	1450
James Cleverly	1419	395
Penny Mordaunt	995	889
Robert Jenrick	1175	660

       The following percentage of members say they would vote Conservative at the next General Election if the following was made leader:

       

Boris Johnson	85.37%
Jacob Rees-Mogg	69.51%
Suella Braverman	65.38%
Priti Patel	47.36%
Kemi Badenoch	43.38%
Liz Truss	43.09%
Penny Badenoch	42.61%
Robert Jenrick	31.63%
James Cleverly	18.93%
David Cameron	13.99%

       If the Conservative Party were to change leader now, which of the following would you support being Prime Minister to lead us into the next General Election? (Members were asked to choose their top 3). They received the following number of votes:

       

Liz Truss	301
Boris Johnson	1419
David Cameron	100
Suella Braverman	891
Jacob Rees-Mogg	721
James Cleverly	75
Kemi Badenoch	518
Penny Mordaunt	520
Priti Patel	286
Robert Jenrick	220

       Agee range on leader preference:

       Key to the table: LT: Liz Truss, BJ: Boris Johnson, DC: David Cameron, SB: Suella Braverman, JRM: Jacob Rees-Mogg, JC: James Cleverly, KB: Kemi Badenoch, PM: Penny Mordaunt, PP: Priti Patel, RJ: Robert Jenrick

       

Age Range	LT	BJ	DC	SB	JRM	JC	KB	PM	PP	RJ
Under 18	11.67	76.67	6.67	26.67	35.00	3.33	16.67	23.33	5.00	6.67
18-24	33.33	50.00	0.00	66.67	50.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	16.67
25-34	13.33	60.00	6.67	33.33	66.67	0.00	33.33	20.00	13.33	0.00
35-44	8.47	71.19	6.78	45.76	28.81	6.78	25.42	35.59	22.03	5.08
45-54	21.47	73.62	4.91	53.37	34.97	3.68	22.70	23.93	22.70	11.04
55-64	16.77	68.64	5.13	46.55	38.07	3.35	23.08	24.06	15.58	10.26
65 or Above	13.01	66.99	4.34	40.24	33.25	3.45	26.10	25.38	11.57	11.00
Prefer Not to Answer	9.68	54.84	9.68	48.39	19.35	6.45	25.81	12.90	19.35	16.13

       Which Conservative leader do you think Labour would be most scared of facing in a General Election?

       

Boris Johnson	71.86%
Suella Braverman	7.33%
Kemi Badenoch	6.62%
Penny Mordaunt	5.51%
Other not listed	2.68%
Jacob Rees-Mogg	2.59%
Rishi Sunak	1.01%
Liz Truss	0.81%
David Cameron	0.77%
Robert Jenrick	0.48%
Priti Patel	0.34%

       Do you want to Bring Back Boris?

       

Yes	73.20%
Don't know	15.24%
No	11.55%

       Do you believe the Conservative Party has been hijacked by non-Conservatives?

       

Yes	92.09%
Don't know	5.03%
No	2.88%

       Fieldwork: 29/01/2024 to 31/01/2024 Valid Responses: 2086