Rishi Sunak with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt (Image: Getty)
With Jeremy Hunt poised to unveil his eagerly anticipated Budget statement, Rishi Sunak has been warned not to rely on a bounce in the polls as he seeks to make up ground on Labour.
And Professor Tony Travers also believes that despite talk of a spring election, the Prime Minister is likely to wait until the autumn - reasoning that an as-yet unforeseen event could yet turn things his way.
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The Chancellor is widely expected to cut National Insurance by two pence in the pound tomorrow, with the Tories hoping the raft of financial measures he announces could help move the needle in a week in which one survey put support for the Tories at just 20 percent.
Prof Travers, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics (LSE) Department of Government and director of LSE London, told Express.co.uk: “We all expect in fairness chancellors to treat Budgets like rabbit-out-of-a-hat exercises.
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“What's different of course now is that if the Budget leaked in the past, it was considered a resigning matter for the chancellor. Now the thing is leaked continuously for weeks in advance, so they can test options.”
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Jeremy Hunt will deliver his Budget tomorrow (Image: Getty)
Referring to attempts by the Conservative Party to cut into Labour’s lead in the polls, which currently ranges from 20-25 percent, Prof Travers continued: “The idea that a single change in a Budget is going to revive Conservative fortunes, I think is, let’s say, very optimistic.”
Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth yesterday claimed rumours of a May election were currently “the talk of Westminster” - but Prof Travers suggested this was likely a mind game intended to put pressure on Mr Sunak.
It was more likely that the PM would choose to bide his time and see what transpired in the next months, Prof Travers suggested.
He explained: “None of us expected COVID, none of us expected the 2008 banking crisis.
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Labour's Jonathan Ashworth, pictured at the party's last annual conference (Image: Getty)
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“And it was not expected that Putin would invade Ukraine until the last moment.
“So the longer they pad it out, the longer there is the chance that something will turn up that none of us have predicted.
“My predictive capacities are never wonderful but saying that, I would think it is much more likely to be October or November, November probably most likely, than May.
“January looks desperate and risks campaigning during carol concerts, the sort of thing the public doesn’t like very much.”
Mr Hunt has said "lower tax means higher growth" as he promised "permanent cuts in taxation" for families on the eve of his Budget.
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The Chancellor said the Government's plans "mean more investment, more jobs, more productive public services and lower taxes". He accused Labour of having "no plan" and the Liberal Democrats of having "no principles".
Mr Hunt is widely reported to have opted to cut National Insurance rather than reduce income tax, which is more expensive but better understood by many voters.
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Speaking to Eamonn Holmes and Isabel Webster on GB News today, Shadow Paymaster General Mr Ashworth said: “There’s lots of gossip swirling around in this place about a May general election.”
“My demand to Rishi Sunak is name the date, give people certainty, because if businesses want to invest in the UK economy, they need that certainty.
“So, name the date, everyone thinks there's going to be a May election. Give us the date and let's give the British people the opportunity for the change that they need.”
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