THE OCEANS matter in geopolitics once more. In the Middle East the Houthi rebel group is menacing shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade. On January 12th America and Britain launched strikes on over 60 Houthi targets in Yemen. The allies strikes are an attempt to reassert freedom of navigation in a crucial artery of world trade but also dramatically expand the geographic scope of the Middle East conflict. Taiwan stands on the cusp of an election that could shape its future. A fight over the island would involve an intense Sino-American naval war stretching well beyond the Pacific. And in Europe the war in Ukraine may turn on the maritime contest for the Black Sea and Crimea. Sea power is back.

       There are bright spots for Western navies in this new era. America and its allies still possess the most advanced submarines. They are bound together in naval alliances and partnerships unmatched by Russia or China. But their naval dominance is eroding. China’s navy is now the world’s largest (see chart). American shipyards have withered. And European navies are a shadow of their former selves, having shed 28% of their submarines and 32% of frigates and destroyers between 1999 and 2018.

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