India’s fiscal deficit between April and February for the current financial year (FY24) jumped to Rs 15.01 trillion or 86.5 per cent of the full-year revised target of Rs 17.34 trillion from Rs 11 trillion, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed on Thursday.

       In comparison, the fiscal deficit was 82.8 per cent of the target during the corresponding period (April-February) in FY23.

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       During the first 11 months of FY24, the centre spent 84.8 per cent of the Rs 9.5 trillion capital expenditure target compared to 81.1 per cent during the same period a year ago. Revenue expenditure for April-February stood at 83.1 per cent of FY24 in the revised estimates (RE) of Rs 35.4 trillion as compared to 83.9 per cent in the same period a year ago. The centre's total expenditure of Rs 37.5 trillion for April-February in FY24 reached 83.4 per cent of the RE.

       Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda says that the government is still around Rs 7.43 trillion of expenditure short of the target, majorly due to the shortfalls in spending by ministries such as agriculture (Rs 20,668 crore), rural (Rs 48,088 crore), chemicals and fertilisers (Rs 16,150 crore), roads (Rs 26,000 crore) and consumer affairs (Rs 35,117 crore).

       “There could be some savings here by Rs 50-6000 crore if these budgets are not exhausted,” he added.

       The net tax revenue for the April-February FY24 period came in at Rs 18.5 trillion, some 7 per cent higher than the amount gathered for the same period last year.

       While there may be some slippage in the disinvestment target, it is not expected that the revised fiscal deficit target of Rs 17.3 trillion for FY24 would be breached, said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA Ratings.

       “While the Rs 1.4 trillion left to be incurred in March 2024 to meet the full-year target for capex this fiscal is slightly lower than the Rs 1.5 trillion recorded in March FY23, this may be missed given the announcement of the model code of conduct during the month. The headroom of Rs 6 trillion left for revenue spending in March FY24 is 9 per cent higher than the expenditure of Rs 5.5 trillion recorded in March 2023,” she added.

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