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When push comes to shove, China edges out US as S-E Asia’s preferred superpower: ISEAS survey

2024-04-02 00:00:00.0 海峡时报-亚洲原网页

SINGAPORE China edges out the United States as South-east Asia’s preferred superpower by a narrow margin, if countries in the region were forced to choose between the two major powers, a survey has found.

The findings, published in the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s The State Of South-east Asia 2024 report on April 2, indicated a notable shift in sentiments among respondents from the region, who had leaned towards the US in the last four surveys.

Among the 1,994 respondents polled across the 10 Asean nations, 50.5 per cent indicated China as their preferred choice, while 49.5 per cent selected the US, when asked a hypothetical question on which country the region should choose if it was forced to align itself with either.

In the 2023 survey, only 38.9 per cent of respondents picked China, with 61.1 per cent opting for the US.

The 2024 survey was conducted online from Jan 3 to Feb 23, and polled respondents from academia, think-tanks, research groups, businesses, civil society, the media and regional or international organisations, as well as governments. Eligibility criteria were tightened in this edition and respondents were screened on various criteria such as nationality, age, affiliation, education, general knowledge of Asean and level of interest in current affairs.

Respondents could take the survey in one of six language options: English, Bahasa Indonesia, Burmese, Khmer, Thai and Vietnamese.

First conducted in 2019, the annual survey aims to present a snapshot of the prevailing attitudes among people in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues.

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In the 2024 survey, China continues to be seen as the most influential economic power in South-east Asia, followed by Asean and the US. China was perceived as the most influential political and strategic power in the region, followed by the US.

The Asean nations’ perception of the bloc’s political and strategic influence is also on the rise, according to the survey.

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Despite the positive perceptions about China, concerns about its growing regional political and strategic influence persist, with 73.5 per cent of respondents expressing unease, up from 68.5 per cent in 2023.

Confidence in the US has also waned, with nearly 60 per cent of respondents concerned about its growing strategic and political influence in the region, up from over 40 per cent in 2023.

The waning confidence in the US could be attributed partly to the escalating rivalry between China and the US, the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute said in the report.

Although most respondents were worried about the US’ growing influence, there were exceptions, including those in the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, who perceived US influence more positively.

In a webinar on April 2 organised by the institute to discuss the findings, Ms Bonnie Glaser, managing director of US think-tank German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific programme, noted that the results, which are sometimes contradictory, show the complexity of issues Asean faces.

Ms Glaser said that the slight shift towards China by Asean nations if they had to choose between China and the US could be due to the make-up of the respondents. She noted that unlike the 2023 poll, the 2024 survey had a higher proportion of private-sector or business-affiliated respondents, who might place more emphasis on China’s growing power.

In the 2024 survey, respondents affiliated with the private sector comprised 33.7 per cent of the total, increasing from 24.7 per cent in the 2023 poll. Conversely, respondents from academia, think-tanks or research institutions dropped to 23.6 per cent in the 2024 survey, down from 34.8 per cent in 2023.

Professor Danny Quah, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, cautioned that there is no need to “read too much” into China’s 1 percentage point lead over the US as the results are more indicative than prescriptive.

He said the underlying data shows more of a seesaw pattern rather than a direct trend leaning towards China. “By focusing on who crosses the 50 per cent mark, we lose sight of that,” he noted.

Since the hypothetical question of which country the region would choose if it was forced to align itself with either was added to the 2020 edition of the survey, the proportion of respondents picking either China or the US has fluctuated over the years.

For instance, 46.4 per cent of respondents picked China in 2020, and the proportion dropped to 38.5 per cent in 2021. It rose to 43 per cent in 2022, and dropped to 38.9 per cent in 2023, before rising to 50.5 per cent in this year’s survey.

Prof Quah said: “We need to distinguish statements about China and the concerns about the degree of influence, which are extremely high.

“The fact that China is acknowledged as most influential does not mean acceptance of that (influence). Similarly for the US.”