Home Secretary James Cleverly says Tories underpriced in locals (Image: Getty)
Home Secretary James Cleverly insists key results in the local elections are “underpriced” for the Tories as the party fights for every seat.
The Conservatives are facing an onslaught in the locals as it battles a Labour party riding high in the polls and Reform pushing hard from the right.
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Council seats up for election this time round are those that were last selected in 2021 when the Tories performed well on the back of a bounce in the polls following the roll out of the covid vaccine.
Across England and Wales more than 2,650 seats are up for grabs in 107 local authorities as well as elections for 37 police and crime commissioners, 11 mayors, the London Assembly and the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.
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Police & crime commissioners - state of the parties before 2024 elections. (Image: Infographic PA Graphics.)
For Tory MPs, the fate of two big beast mayors - Ben Houchen in Tees Valley and Andy Street in the West Midlands - are seen as totemic.
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Rishi Sunak’s opponents have suggested he will face a leadership challenge if the overall results are dire, although it would take 52 Tory MPs to submit letters of no confidence in him to trigger a challenge.
One senior Conservative said it will be a “blood bath” if Lord Houchen loses while another raised fears that Mr Street will “cause trouble” if he is voted out.
Tory MP Sir Michael Fabricant, a key supporter of Mr Street, insisted the campaign is “going well”.
Lord Houchen is facing a challenge from only Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the smallest number of candidates in this year’s mayoral races.
Home Secretary James Cleverly said: “Ben and Andy are campaigning very much on their track record of delivery and in both cases, compared to their predecessors their track record is outstanding.
“But the bottom line is in both cases, we strip out all the party politics out of it, they have been outstanding champions for their region, and they've got a track record of delivery.
“And a pipeline of future things to deliver. And I genuinely believe that that track record of delivery and the promise of more will will have a massive and positive impact on their electoral chances. I don't do predictions.
“I think their chance of success is underpriced because of their excellent track record of delivery.”
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Reform is only fielding candidates in 12% of the seats but is focusing on key areas, including Bolton, Hartlepool, Plymouth and Sunderland.
Overall the Conservatives and Labour are both defending more than 900 existing council seats, with the Lib Dems on around 400 and the Greens just over 100.
George Galloway is hoping to capitalise on his success in the Rochdale by-election by winning seats for the Workers Party of Britain in the town as well as in nearby Manchester.
A Tory source said the party “overperformed” the last time these elections were up so it is now “defending the highest possible watermark” after a vaccine bounce then.
After 10 years in government the Labour Party had lost over 4,000 council seats - down from 10,608 in 1997 to 5,483 in 2007.
England mayoral elections 2024 (Image: Infographic PA Graphics)
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Andrew Hawkins, chief executive officer of Whitestone, said: “The timing of the local elections could barely be worse for Rishi Sunak.
“When local elections were last held in the seats being contested on May 2, the Conservatives were riding high in the polls but a 43% average national vote share has now shrunk to 24%, while Labour increased their average lead by 19% points.
“The Conservatives did well last time these seats were fought in 2021, and Labour did badly. This means there are lots of seats for the Conservatives to lose.
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“Unfortunately for Mr Sunak, there are also ten city and metro mayors being elected.
“These include high profile mayors, most if not all of which the Conservatives are likely to lose, in which case stand by for some bitter Tory in-fighting afterwards.
“What might help the Conservatives save some face may be the personal following of some incumbent candidates, historically low turnout for mayoral elections, and the fact that fewer seats than usual are being contested across the country. None of which is a ringing endorsement for Rishi Sunak or his Party.”
Key battlegrounds in the local elections
Tees Valley
Mayor Ben Houchen has been a Conservative poster boy for levelling up since his shock win in 2017. By the time he was reelected in 2021, he had secured an astonished 72.8% of the vote in the authority that represents 670,000 people. But polling now puts him neck and neck with Labour’s Chris McEwan on 47% each.
West Midlands
Andy Street is fighting for a third term as mayor of the region and is a well known figure locally. The former managing director of John Lewis has narrowed the gap in the polls but is still six points behind to Labour’s Richard Parker.
London
Sadiq Khan is also running for a third term in the capital and despite some unpopular policies, including the expansion of the ultra low emission zone charge for cars, remains favourite to win. But the parties will be looking closely at the margin, with Tory Susan Hall tipped to do better than many expect.
A new mayoralty is up for grabs in North East England with voters in Durham, Gateshead, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Tyneside, Northumberland, South Tyneside and Sunderland picking their favourite for the first time. But an internal Labour party spat means a former party member Jamie Driscoll, the current mayor of the North of Tyne, is standing as an independent, which is expected to dent support for Sir Keir’s Starmer’s chosen candidate Kim McGuinness.
Hartlepool
In 2021, Boris Johnson did a victory lap with Jill Mortimer after she took the seat in a blow to Labour during a by-election in its traditional Labour heartlands. A third of the town’s seats are up for grabs and the opposition will be keen to show they are winning back support in the red wall.
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