‘What lessons is China learning from Russia’s war on Ukraine?" is a question that preoccupies many senior policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals. The hope is that Russia’s experience in Ukraine will deter Beijing from invading Taiwan. But Beijing may be drawing different conclusions in the third year of this grueling war than it did in the first. And the lessons China’s leaders are learning may be the opposite of those the White House wants them to learn.

       Two years ago, Russia suffered a humiliating defeat in the battle for Kyiv. Vladimir Putin’s generals had promised their boss a swift operation. It turned out to be a drawn-out and bloody fight—largely due to many years of corruption and complacency among Russia’s top brass. Xi Jinping took swift action to identify the weak and rotten spots in China’s military machine. In September 2023, China’s newly appointed defense minister, Li Shangfu, disappeared as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a corruption investigation of the procurement system he’d led. Beijing’s expansion of its military-industrial complex suggests Chinese leaders are also heeding other lessons of the Ukraine war, including the need to prepare for a lengthy campaign that will require a colossal stockpile of munitions, missiles and drones and the ability to produce them at scale.

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