RISHI Sunak shocked his party and the country on Wednesday when he stepped into the rain to announce the July 4 election.
Why would a Tory Prime Minister call an election when his party is more than 20 points behind Labour in many polls?
Here are five good reasons for one of the biggest political gambles in modern times.
1. This forces the country to make a choice
The arrival of Rishi Sunak in Number 10 ended the instability that defined the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss chapters of government. On his watch inflation has returned to normal levels and the ONS says the economy is “going gangbusters”.
But has he got any credit for it in the polls? No!
None of his major policy achievements, such as cutting National Insurance, passing his Rwanda legislation or boosting defence spending, has turned the dial.
A Tory insider said: “If you’re not getting heard and you’re 20 points behind things are only going to get worse. By calling the election he’s focusing minds on the choice.”
The party remembers how Theresa May’s poll lead collapsed in the heat of the 2017 election and hopes Sir Keir Starmer will suffer a similar fate when the country is faced with a straight choice between him and Mr Sunak being Prime Minister.
This is one reason why Mr Sunak is so keen to stage weekly television debates with the Labour leader.
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2. Things may not only get better
Mr Sunak could have waited until January next year to stage an election. Many Tories believed that “going long” would result in people feeling better off by polling day thanks to National Insurance cuts and potential falls in interest rates.
But a cautious Bank of England held rates at 5.25 per cent this month. Meanwhile, people coming off fixed-term mortgages are discovering to their horror that the era of cheap credit is truly over.
There is scant spare cash at the Treasury for a giveaway Autumn Statement, and Conservatives are haunted the market panic that Liz Truss’s mini-Budget unleashed. There is also the risk that global events could push inflation up from its present low.
The PM takes clear pride in his record up to this point and wants you to judge him on that.
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3. Rwanda flights could lose votes
Red Wall Tory MPs say tackling illegal immigration and stopping the boats is central to their chances of electoral survival. But many voters in liberal seats will be less enthusiastic at the take-off of planes carryng asylum seekers to the African state; Mr Sunak will not want to send them into the arms of the Lib Dems.
There is also the risk voters who are already angry about the small boat crossing will be furious if these continue during the summer despite the millions of pounds spent on the Rwanda partnership. And, as the recent ruling that provisions of the Illegal Migration Act should be disapplied in Northern Ireland demonstrates, there is the potential for more legal showdowns.
Calling the election now gives the country a straight choice between a Labour leader who would scrap the scheme and a Conservative who has burned the midnight oil trying to make it work.
Rishi Sunak showed he knew how to make a splash when he announced the shock election (Image: Getty)
4. It stops Reform UK getting on the front foot
Conservatives are very worried about the potential of Reform UK to hand the margin of victory to Opposition parties in key seats. But Reform's disappointing performance in the local elections suggests it lacks the campaign infrastructure on the ground to create real havoc.
An early election makes it harder for it to build up intelligence and recruit and train activists. The decision also forced Nigel Farage to rule out standing as an MP, ending a guessing-game that would have run through the summer.
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5. An election unites a battle-ready party and shows who’s boss
Nobody can now accuse Mr Sunak of being a ditherer who planned to “squat” in Downing St until he could put off the election no longer.
Instead, he has caught Labour by surprise and he can financially out-gun Sir Keir’s party. Labour is appealing for ￡1 donations with the warning that the Tories are “planning to spend ￡34 million in the next six weeks”.
The urgency of the campaign – and the mass retirement of Conservative MPs whose ministerial careers were behind them – means a party that has endured stark divisions and recent defections should unite around the mission to win.
One Conservative insider said: “In six weeks time this could look like the greatest masterstroke if it works. But if it doesn’t it will look like the most moronic decision in political history.”
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