The final two candidates will face off in a debate tonight (Image: Getty)

       Sir Keir Starmer would lose his Commons majority if Robert Jenrick was the next Tory leader, a shock poll has revealed.

       The former immigration minister would win an extra 57 seats, compared to the 30 Kemi Badenoch would claim, a study by Electoral Calculus said.

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       But the poll, of 6,300 people, also revealed one of the biggest beneficiaries of Tory members picking Mr Jenrick would be Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

       It said the Conservatives, under Mr Jenrick, would win 178 seats.

       Labour’s majority would vanish, with the party winning 311 seats, the Liberal Democrats dropping from 72 to 58 and Reform rising from five to 24. That would place Labour 14 seats short of a majority.

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       Robert Jenrick would take a chunk out of Labour support (Image: Getty)

       It is the first poll to examine the impact of the Conservative leadership candidates on a Parliamentary General Election.

       Mr Jenrick seized on the polling, declaring to members: “This is the choice. Government or opposition.”

       Surveys of Tory members suggest that Mrs Badenoch has the edge over Mr Jenrick, although the gap has narrowed. A YouGov poll of members at the beginning of October showed Mrs Badenoch ahead by 52 per cent to Mr Jenrick’s 48 per cent, compared with 59 per cent versus 41 per cent six weeks earlier.

       A Jenrick campaign source said: “All the polling shows that Rob is more popular than Kemi with the public — whether they are Labour, Lib Dem or Reform voters.

       “This is a contest to pick the next prospective prime minister, not just an opposition figure to shout at Starmer. Everyone has had enough of excuses and drama, we just need to deliver.”

       Kemi Badenoch has said she is running a "grassroots campaign" to be the next Tory leader rather than a "media campaign", in an apparent swipe at her rival Robert Jenrick.

       The two final candidates for the Conservative leadership have taken different approaches to the final leg of the race to succeed Rishi Sunak, with Mr Jenrick having made more public-facing speeches than his rival.

       Both are expected to take part in televised debates, including on GB News on Thursday.

       But Ms Badenoch insisted that despite her lower profile early in the race, she was going win.

       "I think we are going to do this. I am not being complacent," she told a virtual rally of Tory members held on the platform Teams.

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       Keir Starmer will lose his majority if Robert Jenrick becomes Tory leader (Image: Getty)

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       The North West Essex MP added: "I am working hard, I am running a grassroots campaign, not a TV campaign or a media campaign. I am getting out there and I am looking forward to meeting many of you on the campaign trail."

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       Fury as Tory MP claims Kemi Badenoch too ‘preoccupied with her children'

       67 Comments

       Why Nigel Farage could be rubbing hands with glee despite James Clevery lossing Tory race

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       Top pollster John Curtice gives gloomy verdict on Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick

       234 Comments

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       243 Comments

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       Fury as Tory MP claims Kemi Badenoch too ‘preoccupied with her children'

       67 Comments

       Why Nigel Farage could be rubbing hands with glee despite James Clevery lossing Tory race

       68 Comments

       Nigel Farage gives verdict on Tory leader as he sets out 'real reason' for shock result

       163 Comments

       Nigel Farage erupts as he accuses Labour of 'direct interference' in US election

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       Top pollster John Curtice gives gloomy verdict on Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick

       234 Comments

       Robert Jenrick vows to 'kick 1m illegal migrants out' - in hardline Tory leadership pledge

       243 Comments

       Keir Starmer's first 100 days have been appalling - but Tories could still LOSE in 2029

       164 Comments

       I was in the room for the Tory leadership elimination - and everyone said the same thing

       185 Comments

       Tory tantrums over James Cleverly's leadership fail should teach party one lesson

       133 Comments

       Labour MP hands parliamentary job to party donor after ￡55,000 gift

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       Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick offer best chance of Tory revival

       44 Comments

       Robert Jenrick splits with Boris Johnson's over ECHR - and reveals job for Jacob Rees-Mogg

       235 Comments

       Nigel Farage predicts Tory 'establishment' will try anything to stop one candidate winning

       166 Comments

       Shock poll reveals Reform overtaking Tories in Wales as it closes in on two main parties

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       Turning point for Reform UK as Nigel Farage reveals shock poll puts them 'ahead of Labour'

       1703 Comments

       'I asked Tory members if they want a pact with Farage - their response surprised me'

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       Nick Ferrari warns Tories risk 'drifting into political irrelevance' with major shift

       17 Comments

       Alastair Campbell issues smug 4-word verdict after James Cleverly's shock elimination

       570 Comments

       Robert Jenrick says he has ‘Nigel Farage rattled' as final leg of Tory leader race hots up

       482 Comments

       Fury as Tory MP claims Kemi Badenoch too ‘preoccupied with her children'

       67 Comments

       Why Nigel Farage could be rubbing hands with glee despite James Clevery lossing Tory race

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       476 Comments

       Top pollster John Curtice gives gloomy verdict on Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick

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       Robert Jenrick vows to 'kick 1m illegal migrants out' - in hardline Tory leadership pledge

       243 Comments

       Keir Starmer's first 100 days have been appalling - but Tories could still LOSE in 2029

       164 Comments

       In a wide-ranging question and answer session with Tory members, she claimed Reform UK and the Lib Dems were "two sides of the same coin" when asked how she would regain voters for the Conservatives.

       She insisted the Lib Dems had gained so many seats in Parliament because Reform had split the Tories' vote, adding: "If we can get our vote back from Reform I think that would tackle quite a lot of the Lib Dem threat that we face. That means being confident Conservatives again."

       Ms Badenoch however said the party needed to "spread out and get the common ground back", rather than "tack" in one particular political direction.