WASHINGTON - Counting the votes will extend beyond election night on Nov 5, and determining the outcome of the presidential race could, too. Even in states that count their ballots relatively quickly, if the race is as close as the polls say, it could take days before a winner can be projected (election results are never official until final certification).

       In 2020, a record number of people voted by mail because of the pandemic, and many states were processing large numbers of mail ballots for the first time. While mail voting has dropped off in many states and others have made changes to speed up counting, these types of ballots are still more time-consuming to count.

       Democrats have been more likely to cast mail ballots, and variations in timing for counting them can contribute to so-called “mirages” in the reported results – cases in which the type of ballots reported first favour one party in a way that is unrepresentative of the eventual result.

       Here’s what we expect from vote counting in each presidential battleground state:

       Counts fast (but watch the vote margin)

       Polls close at 7pm

       Most Georgia voters tend to vote early in-person, and vote reporting is usually relatively fast. The share of ballots cast by mail, which can often take longer to count, is expected to be small. The mail voting rate returned to the state’s usual level of around 6 per cent in 2022 after growing to about 25 per cent in 2020.

       The state could still be counting corrected mail ballots, overseas ballots and provisional ballots in the days after the election.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: It took more than two weeks to call the state for Joe Biden. The reason: The presidential race was so close that a hand-tallied audit of ballots was initiated. The Associated Press did not call the race until the state audit confirmed Mr Biden’s victory – by about 12,000 votes.

       RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic recount trigger, but candidates may request one if the final margin is less than or equal to 0.5 percentage points of total votes cast for the office.

       Counts fast (with new rules)

       Polls close at 7.30pm

       Early, in-person voting is very popular, and votes are counted very quickly, with 98 per cent to 99 per cent of votes reported by midnight Eastern time in the last two major elections. New rules mean that early voting results will no longer be reported immediately at poll close time, but mail ballots are now due on Election Day (in 2020, ballots postmarked by Election Day had nine days to arrive).

       In 25 western counties affected most by Hurricane Helene at the end of September, voters have been given special accommodations for casting their ballots, and a small number of secure tents have been erected to replace destroyed polling sites.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: It took 10 days to call the state for Donald Trump, then the president. Because the race was so close, and because ballots postmarked by Election Day were allowed to arrive nine days later, the AP waited until the deadline for counties in the state to certify their results.

       RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic recount trigger, but a candidate in a statewide race may request one if they trail the leading candidate by 0.5 percentage points of total votes cast, or 10,000 votes, whichever is less. (In 2020, Trump won the state by 1.3 percentage points.)

       Likely to take longer than election night

       Polls close at 8pm

       It takes longer to count votes in Pennsylvania, primarily because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day. Still, vote counting sped up significantly from 2020 to 2022, in part because of new, faster equipment and a requirement that most counties continue counting mail ballots without stopping after polls close, including through the night.

       Democrats have been much more likely to vote by mail. In the 2020 presidential race, after an initial batch of heavily Democratic votes, the reported tally favoured Trump until more mail ballots were counted, and Mr Biden’s margins increased.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: On the Saturday after the election, mail ballots were still being counted, and there were still a number of outstanding provisional ballots in the state. But the AP was able to project that there were not enough remaining votes left for Trump, and it called the race for Biden (the state also provided the remaining votes he needed to win the presidency).

       RECOUNT RULES: An automatic recount is triggered if the margin in a statewide race is 0.5 percentage points or less of the votes. (In 2020, Biden won the state by 1.2 percentage points.)

       Could be faster than in the past

       Polls close at 8pm and 9pm

       In the past two general elections, about half the votes in Michigan were counted by midnight Eastern time, and the bulk of remaining votes were counted by noon the next day. But the state has passed major reforms that could speed things up: It newly implemented nine days of early in-person voting, and it now allows counties to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day (though not all places plan to take advantage of the new rule).

       Mail ballots – which have been more likely to be cast by Democrats – came in slowly over time in 2020. This contributed to a “red mirage” showing Trump ahead in the reported tally before all mail ballots had been counted. That pattern did not hold in the 2022 election for governor, and it is unclear how new pre-processing rules will affect the order of votes reported.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: The AP called the state for Mr Biden around 6pm Eastern time on the day after the election. While some mail ballots had yet to be counted, they were from overwhelmingly Democratic areas.

       RECOUNT RULES: An automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 2,000 votes or less in a statewide election.

       Likely to finish most counting Wednesday

       Polls close at 9pm

       Poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, but they are required to count through the night until they are finished. In some jurisdictions, including Milwaukee, absentee ballots are counted at a central facility and are reported in large batches. A state official told CNN that full, unofficial results are not likely until the morning after the election.

       In 2020, Trump was ahead in the reported vote until the final results came in, including thousands of ballots from heavily Democratic Milwaukee. This “red mirage” in the results contributed to conspiracy theories about Mr Biden’s victory. That pattern did not repeat in 2022.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: The state was called for Mr Biden in the early afternoon of the day after the election. Only a small number of provisional ballots and a few hundred ballots from a small township were left to be counted.

       RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic recount trigger, though a candidate may request a recount if they trail the winning candidate by a 1 per cent margin or smaller. A recount requested by Trump in 2020 resulted in a very small net vote gain for Mr Biden, who won by a 0.6-percentage-point margin.

       Could take days

       Polls close at 9pm

       First results typically come in around 10 pm Eastern time, an hour after polls close. Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes awhile. While poll workers are allowed to process those ballots that arrive before Election Day upon receipt, they must wait until after polls close to process the ones that arrive on Election Day.

       Two things could contribute to longer waits this year. Officials are now required to count and report the number of ballots dropped off on Election Day before beginning to process them. And in the state’s largest county, Maricopa, there are so many contests that the ballot is two pages, which means more paper to tabulate. Officials there said full results could take 10 to 13 days.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: Fox News called the race for Mr Biden around midnight Eastern time on election night, and the AP made the same call three hours later. But there were still many outstanding mail and provisional ballots, and The New York Times and other outlets were not certain that Trump no longer had a path to victory. The Times ultimately made the call nine days after the election, on Nov 12.

       RECOUNT RULES: Mr Biden won the state by 0.3 percentage points in 2020, when the automatic recount threshold was 0.1 per cent of the total votes for the top two candidates. New legislation passed in 2022 increased that threshold to 0.5 percentage points.

       Could take days

       Polls close at 10pm

       In recent elections, about half of Nevada voters have cast ballots by mail, and counting usually takes a while. Counting could be faster than in the past because of new technology and a rule that allows officials to tabulate ballots sooner. But postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov 9, and voters have until Nov 12 to address mistakes with their ballots.

       WHAT HAPPENED IN 2020: It took four days for the AP to call the state for Mr Biden in 2020. There were still thousands of outstanding mail and provisional ballots left to count, primarily from Clark County.

       RECOUNT RULES: There is no automatic recount trigger, but any candidate may request one (though they bear the cost if they do not prevail). NYTIMES