The model shows Reform UK would double their number of seats (Image: Election Maps UK)
A new forecast shows that if a general election was held tomorrow, Labour would lose its majority and Reform UK would double its number of seats.
The Nowcast model reveals that Keir Starmer’s party would lose 106 seats which would reduce the party's total to just 305 MPs. This is below the threshold needed for a majority of 326 seats.
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If an election were to be held now, Labour would likely need to form a coalition government.
The new forecasting also shows that the Conservatives would gain a staggering 93 seats totalling 214 MPs - this would bring their vote share up to 26.5%, just 1.4 points behind Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are shown to lose three seats, totalling 69 MPs with the SNP gaining six seats, Plaid Cymru losing one and the Green Party remaining on four.
The November 2024 Nowcast sees Labour projected to lose its majority for the first time:
LAB: 305 (-106), 27.9%
CON: 214 (+93), 26.5%
LDM: 69 (-3), 12.2%
SNP: 15 (+6), 2.6%
RFM: 10 (+5), 18.7%
PLC: 3 (-1), 0.6%
Others: 11 (+6), 3.4%https://t.co/1ZvylUw6N8 pic.twitter.com/B8bhUKEuVw
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) November 23, 2024
READ MORE: Nigel Farage sets out master plan for Reform as he eyes crunch election
However, Nigel Farage’s party, Reform UK, ia forecast to double its number of MPs from five to 10.
The seats that Reform UK would gain are Bradford South, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Amber Valley, Montgomeryshire and Glynd？r and Llanelli.
The Nowcast model for November also predicted that Nigel Farage’s party would hold onto its five current seats that they won in July’s general election.
The current Reform constituencies are:
Clacton
Nigel Farage’s seat which he won by 8,405 votes.
Ashfield
Lee Anderson’s constituency won by 5,509 votes.
Great Yarmouth
Rupert Lowe’s constituency - he won by 1,426 votes.
Boston and Skegness
Richard Tice’s seat which he won by 2,010 votes.
South Basildon and East Thurrock
James McMurdock’s seat won by just 98 votes.
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Reform UK MPs at the Farmers Rally last week (Image: Getty)
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The new election maps come after a petition calling for a general election which surpassed two million signatures this morning. Sir Keir Starmer has since ruled out an election during an interview on ITV’s This Morning where he faced a grilling from the hosts.
DON'T MISS
Powered by
POLL: Is Keir Starmer the worst Prime Minister Britain has ever had?
401 Comments
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321 Comments
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401 Comments
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484 Comments
General Election petition passes 350,000 signatures as Reform ‘send Starmer a message'
2743 Comments
Lee Anderson's defiant 5-word verdict as latest data shows Reform UK on for major success
84 Comments
Michael Westwood, the man behind the petition, wrote on the website: “I would like there to be another General Election,
“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.”