The poll suggests that 106 Labour MPs would lose their seats if an election happened tomorrow. (Image: Getty)
Labour would be set to lose over 100 seats if a general election was held tomorrow according to new polling.
The poll by Nowcast predicts that Labour will lose 106 seats and its majority, with the Conservatives the major beneficiaries.
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Among the high-profile casualties is current Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who won his seat by a slender majority of 528 in July.
His seat may still be threatened with his closest challenger, independent candidate Leanne Mohamad, who recently filed a letter of complaint to the Electoral Commission outlining “serious irregularities on the night of the count.”
Another prominent Labour figure who would be set for the boot is Jess Phillips, who narrowly retained her Birmingham Yardley seat by 693 votes in a highly fractious and ugly contest.
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The November 2024 Nowcast sees Labour projected to lose its majority for the first time:
LAB: 305 (-106), 27.9%
CON: 214 (+93), 26.5%
LDM: 69 (-3), 12.2%
SNP: 15 (+6), 2.6%
RFM: 10 (+5), 18.7%
PLC: 3 (-1), 0.6%
Others: 11 (+6), 3.4%https://t.co/1ZvylUw6N8 pic.twitter.com/B8bhUKEuVw
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) November 23, 2024
The Workers’ Party of Britain, which ran her close in July in a contest centred largely on Labour’s stance on the conflict in Gaza, would take her seat.
Ms Phillips resigned from the shadow cabinet earlier this year in disagreement over Keir Starmer’s stance.
The polling predicts Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood will retain her seat despite having the second slimmest majority in the cabinet, at 3,421.
Labour claimed a landslide victory in July’s election, taking 412 parliamentary seats despite only increasing their vote share by 2% from their 2019 defeat.
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Shabana Mahmood is another cabinet member with a slim majority. (Image: Getty)
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However, their success was narrow in many seats, and the growing threat of Reform UK, who came second in 89 constituencies that Labour won, ensures that MPs cannot take their victory for granted.
MPs in constituencies with large farming communities are amongst those who cannot afford a fall in support, especially with the Conservative Party and Reform UK siding heavily with farmers.
Some Labour victories were so narrow that they were decided by less than 500 votes in eight seats, With David Pinto Duschinksky and Neil Duncan-Jordan winning by just 15 and 18 votes, respectively.