ANALYSIS
Keir Starmer And Ukrainian President Zelensky (Image: Getty)
Keir Starmer is set to take his biggest gamble since becoming Prime Minister.
His plan to protect Ukraine from further Russian aggression involves sending British troops to the country.
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It comes after President Donald Trump’s erratic comments suggested the US is no longer willing to support efforts to protect Ukraine’s independence.
Sir Keir’s plan has two aims. The first is for the UK, as part of a joint European military force, to step in and take America’s place, at least to an extent.
At the same time, he hopes to convince Mr Trump not to abandon Ukraine entirely, by showing that European countries including the UK are willing to do our part instead of expecting the Americans to do it all (though we should remember that Europe has already provided more aid to Ukraine than the US, whatever Mr Trump appears to believe).
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The policy has not been kept a secret. Sir Keir has spoken openly about it.
But it hasn’t yet sunk in with the British public that the Government is likely to deploy troops.
And this is why it’s a gamble. Britons have been firmly behind Ukraine as it fights for its survival but it remains to be seen whether voters will feel the same way about a plan that could potentially place our own soldiers in harm’s way - or even lead to war with Russia.
Sir Keir made the policy clear today when he said: “Any settlement must be based on a sovereign Ukraine backed up with strong security guarantees.
“The UK is ready and willing to support this with troops on the ground with other Europeans, and with the right conditions in place.
“And ultimately a US backstop will be vital to deter Russia from launching another invasion in just a few years’ time.”
This would only happen once a peace agreement is in place. British troops would not take part in the current war.
And of course, the whole point would be to ensure a new war doesn’t break out. The European force would be there to stop Mr Putin launching another attack.
But the only way to do that would be to make it clear that if Russia did attempt another invasion, the European troops, including the British contingent, would fight.
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Perhaps it’s unlikely that this would ever happen, particularly if Sir Keir convinces the US to provide the “backstop” he is calling for. That would not involve US troops in Ukraine, but the idea is that American air power and missiles based in other parts of eastern Europe would support the European force in a battle against Russia if needed.
Nonetheless, the only way Sir Keir’s plan works is if those British troops are ready, in theory, to go to war against Russia in the event of another invasion.
It remains to be seen whether the British public will support this once they realise what’s planned. Sir Keir is likely to be helped, however, by the fact that the Conservative Party is set to support his efforts.
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Why is the Prime Minister looking at taking such a bold (and expensive) step? As he also said today, it’s because he thinks that if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin succeeds in conquering Ukraine he will then move on to other countries.
Speaking about a visit to Kyiv, Sir Keir recalled the words of one Ukrainian who told him: “If Ukraine fails, Europe will be next.”
The Prime Minister said: “That is what’s at stake here.”