Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Reform UK is in the lead in new polling on the crunch Runcorn and Helsby by-election. The research by Lord Ashcroft Polls puts Nigel Farage's party ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when respondents are weighted on their likelihood to vote, with the Tories third on 10%.
But Reform's lead over Sir Keir Starmer's party extends to nine points by 42% to 33% when only respondents who say they are certain to vote are included. Under this scenario, the Conservatives are on 11%.
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The insurgent party came second with 18% at the 2024 general election, with Labour taking the Cheshire seat with 53% of the vote share and the Tories third on 16%.
The polling found 55% of Labour voters at the last election said they would definitely vote, compared to 78% of 2024 Reform backers.
The by-election was sparked by former Labour MP Mike Amesbury announcing earlier this week that he would quit the Commons after punching a constituent.
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He was given a 10-week prison term, which was reduced to a suspended sentence after an appeal, leaving him at risk of being ousted from Parliament through the recall process.
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He won his seat last year with a majority of 14,696 over Reform UK and his resignation will be a first by-election test for Sir Keir Starmer.
Amesbury pleaded guilty in January to assaulting constituent Paul Fellows, 45, after a row in the street in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of October 26.
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Footage showed him punching Mr Fellows to the head, knocking him to the ground, then following him on to the road and starting to punch him again, at least five times.
The former Labour MP has been sitting as an independent since he was suspended by the party after his arrest last year.
Cheshire West and Chester councillor Karen Shore will run for Labour's, but no other party's have unveiled their candidates yet.