OPINION
Nigel Farage could be pulling No10's strings without even being PM (Image: Danny Lawson/PA Wire)
On the eve of May elections and a by-election Reform UK is set to win, it is worth considering the extent to which Labour has copied Reform policies or at least its vibe. From cuts to the benefits system to slashing overseas aid to fund defence spending, Labour's tone and agenda seem increasingly set by Nigel Farage. No wonder Labour MPs are getting the ick.
So much so in fact that a proposed plan to freeze Personal Independence Payments (PIP) is quite likely to be axed. For ministers this planned disability benefits cut - or cancelled inflation-indexed rise - is a bridge too far given the likely backbench rebellion. With policies like these, why not just vote Tory or Reform? Yet in many ways the Conservatives stand to lose (given Kemi Badenoch's party is being sidelined out of the national conversation) while Reform can claim victory in spooking Labour to turn Right.
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That said, there is risk for Reform if Labour wins hearts and minds in the North, Midlands and coastal communities, especially if Labour hardens considerably on immigration.
As Reform and Labour jockey for top position in opinion polls, Labour's 'Red Wall' group of around 40 MPs is now calling for a stronger message on immigration too. Yet, with its stonking great majority Labour doesn't really have to worry about Reform or the Tories throwing them out of office until 2029 at the earliest.
Even considerable by-election losses for Sir Keir Starmer's party are unlikely to change that. Labour can then afford to push through tough decisions early on — in the hope voters have short memories — or simply ignore the Reform threat for now.
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However, Sir Keir does appear spooked by Reform and clearly takes the Farage threat seriously, even risking his MPs' wrath.
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Meanwhile, the forlorn Tories are simply unable to make headway as the party which won a landslide in 2019 transforms into Britain's number three party.
As the optics of booting out Badenoch are appalling, this is likely to continue, at least in the absence of a Reform implosion, something Farage is determined to avoid as evidenced by the Rupert Lowe saga.
In the meantime, Labour's Rightward turn may well continue — which carries risks for Reform if Sir Keir can convince voters his party means business on migration and balancing the books — or lead to a humiliating climbdown to appease Labour MPs, giving Reform the chance to maintain its dynamic rise in the polls.