Brexit has paved the way for a US-UK trade deal (Image: Getty)
Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt today lashes out at doomsters trying to talk down Brexit with a warning that claims about its impact on the economy have been “overly exaggerated”. Official bodies have misunderstood how the UK’s export market works and this could sabotage attempts to sign an historic new trade deal with the US, he said.
Mr Hunt, who backed remain in the 2016 referendum, said an economy-boosting agreement with US President Donald Trump’s administration was possible because of Brexit. He said: “We should not give up on the idea of a trade agreement with the United States, either comprehensive or sectoral, something that it is much more feasible to achieve with our own independent trade policy.” But he warned some remainers are trying to use Mr Trump’s controversial trade policies including the imposition of tariffs to demand closer links with the EU.
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The senior Conservative insisted: “The idea that the ideal situation for the UK is to prioritise either the United States or Europe is flawed: we must have a good trading relationship with both if we are to prosper.”
Mr Hunt, a former Tory leadership candidate, made the comments as think tank Policy Exchange published a detailed study challenging Whitehall orthodoxy about Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official Treasury watchdog, claims both exports and imports “will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU” and this analysis is used by Government departments to help determine policy.
But the figures are misleading according to Policy Exchange researchers, who pointed out that they are based on the volume of exports rather than the total value. For example, UK automotive exports are down 28% compared to 2019, but the success of prestige cars made in the UK such as Jaguars, Bentleys and Aston Martins mean the total value of exports is down by only 2% - and many of these vehicles are sold in the US and other non-EU markets.
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In addition, official figures fail to take into account the fact that cars and the aerospace industry make up a large proportion of UK exports but a global downturn in these sectors has affected every country and is nothing to do with Brexit. Researchers also point out that the UK struggled to export goods to the EU long before the referendum.
Mr Hunt said: “This excellent paper by Policy Exchange clearly demonstrates that Brexit has had much less impact on British exports to the EU than has been previously thought.”
He hit out at remainers hoping to use Donald Trump’s announcements as a vehicle for pushing the UK back into the EU. The MP said: “The new US Administration’s stance on tariffs has thrust international trade back to the forefront of the policy agenda. For some, this has been used as an opportunity to re-open debates about Brexit. They argue that if the US is a less reliable trading partner, the UK has no choice but to seek closer ties with Europe – either by joining the Single Market, or even by rejoining the EU. This is a false dichotomy.”
Mr Hunt said: “In this era of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, it is more important than ever that the UK keeps all of its allies close. Britain does not need to choose between the EU and the US on trade, but should seek to maintain positive and open relationships with both.”
Despite campaigning against Brexit in 2016, when he was health secretary in the Government led by David Cameron, Mr Hunt warned that it would be a mistake to try to re-open the debate about EU membership now.
“Those who seek to relitigate Brexit are deeply mistaken. The half-decade of political instability that followed Brexit took its toll on governance and neither business, nor the population at large, would thank the Government for reopening these questions.”
Policy Exchange urged the Government to tackle issues that do threaten UK exports, such as the high cost of energy and uncompetitive tax rates.
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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is leading talks on a “reset” of relations with the EU, which has been pushing the UK to agree to a new Youth Mobility Scheme giving people aged 18 to 30 the right to live and work in the UK for up to five years.
Pro-EU campaigners hoping to capitalise on Mr Trump’s return to the White House include the European Movement, which is advertising a lecture to be delivered by Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland in May with the title “Trump changes everything: how the US president makes a new UK approach to Europe essential”.
The group’s chief executive Sir Nick Harvey, a former Lib Dem MP, said following Mr Trump’s election win: “Sensible conversations are more crucial than ever before, about the damage of leaving the European Union, and what shape our future relationship should take.”