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Rachel Reeves may have to rescue the national finances yet again if Trump unleashes tariffs (Image: Getty)
The worst thing a Chancellor can do is inflict pain without gain. Rachel Reeves enraged the Labour Left last week by cutting disability benefits to restore her ￡9.9billion Budget buffer. That “headroom” could be wiped out if President Trump slaps tariffs on the UK and drags the country into a trade war.
This would plunge Ms Reeves into a nightmare version of Groundhog Day. She will be back where she started, rifling down the back of the nation’s sofas in search of loose change in a desperate bid to avert market turmoil; Government departments will brace for cuts in the upcoming spending review and households and businesses alike will look to the autumn Budget with dread, fearing that this time the Chancellor will announce outright tax hikes.
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YouGov polling shows 68% of Britons disapprove of the government’s record so far. The cost of living crisis has not ended for households buckling under increased mortgage costs, the hike in council tax and soaring utility bills.
Britain’s woes will get even more difficult if we face an onslaught of tariffs. The country’s GDP could take a 1.3% hit in a worst-case scenario, according to Bloomberg Economics’s analysis of the threat.
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Britain is no position to take such a blow. Goldman Sachs predicts growth of just 0.8% this year and manufacturers warn of contracting exports and deteriorating confidence.
Sir Keir Starmer and the Chancellor are in a position of excruciating awkwardness, trying to appear neither weak nor craven in a moment of profound risk. They are pinning their hopes on an “economic deal” with the President which will minimise the tariffs, and they know that if they hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs this risks causing even deeper damage to the UK economy.
It should not come as a surprise that President Trump is willing to hit Britain with tariffs. Canada and Mexico, two of its most important trading partners have been pummelled.
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The prospect of a state visit will not be enough to dissuade Trump from launching his new era of protectionism. He delights in exercising raw power, and cries of anguish from London, Brussels and Ottawa will be welcomed by his supporters as proof he is intent on rebuilding American manufacturing.
Alas for Sir Keir, he cannot hope to escape blame if the UK economy tips into decline. Employers are incensed at the hike in employers’ National Insurance Contributions and Ms Reeves has been warned this is a threat to jobs and growth.
Bosses reeling at this surge in costs who are forced to make tough decisions will target their anger at the occupants of Downing Street.