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Keir Starmer and Labour have only two threat to Reform – don't hold your breath lefties

2025-06-27 00:00:00.0 每日快报-政治原网页

OPINION

Nigel Farage, Member of Parliament and Reform UK Leader (Image: Getty)

Reform UK is still annihilating the Conservatives and clearly stealing votes from Labour as its populist policies carve out a new space in British political life. Pollster estimates of Tory MPs at the next election vary from around 50 to as low as 12. To some extent, of course, under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has a thankless task. She leads a party universally loathed after 14 years of failure. Meanwhile, every utterance by the Conservatives against Labour – especially regarding immigration – carries the stench of rank hypocrisy.

Yet while her leadership is one of Reform's greatest assets, how much longer will the Tory backbenches tolerate this collapse? While I have long said the optics of booting Badenoch out would be horrific, rumours abound of a mutiny. So desperate have the backbenches become there is even talk of a planned comeback for ex-PM Boris Johnson!

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Frankly, a new leader – whether Johnson coming back from the political dead, Robert Jenrick, or someone else entirely – is unlikely to reverse woeful Tory fortunes. But could a new leader really do any worse? Complacency then could be Reform's greatest enemy. Johnson was ultimately deemed a disaster, but he remains the only politician to match Farage's name and brand recognition.

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In this respect – and in others – what happens next to the Conservatives will be critical. A new leader could well dent Reform's lead. On the other hand, continued poll collapse either due to keeping Badenoch staying put or a successor failing to stem the tide, could prompt an exodus of Tory MPs to Reform. If that trickle becomes a flood, Reform's poll lead only strengthens. With or without such an exodus, ongoing Tory woes could well prompt an attempted deal with Reform.

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All this plays to Nigel Farage's advantage unless the Reform leader fears guilt by association, either by accepting a number of former Conservative MPs or cutting some electoral deal with the Conservatives. Right now, Farage is understandably resistant to the latter and for good reason: aside from undermining Reform's claim to offer a genuine alternative to the 'uniparty', a Reform parliamentary party stuffed with former Tory MPs would offer huge ammunition to Labour (and likely alienate many Labour-Reform wavering voters in the North and Midlands).

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What then of Labour? Sir Keir Starmer's party walks a tightrope in attempting to woo voters flirting with Reform – especially on immigration – without alienating left-wing supporters increasingly leaning towards the Greens and Lib Dems. Labour is hardly succeeding with this balancing act, while recent watered-down welfare reforms appear likely to alienate all sides while failing to establish a much-needed reputation for economic competence.