The latest polling shows Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on track to overtake the Conservatives (Image: Jacob King/PA Wire)
Reform UK is on course to be the second biggest party in Parliament with the Conservatives suffering a devastating defeat and Labour losing its majority, new research reveals. Nigel Farage suggests in a documentary tonight that Reform’s “biggest enemy” will be “ourselves” as the party works to preserve unity and find top quality candidates ahead of a series of key electoral challenges.
Reform would win 208 seats in a general election and the Conservatives would languish in third place with just 89 MPs, according to a projection based on Survation polling. Meanwhile, Labour would be 104 MPs short of a majority, winning in only 222 constituencies. The findings will fuel hopes among Reform supporters the party will grow its support and secure an outright majority at the next general election.
Article continues below ADVERTISEMENT
Discover Effortless Glucose Monitoring: Request a Free TrialDexcom G7 Is Easy To Use and Easy To Get Started....Dexcom | Sponsored Sponsored
Try Now
Undo
DON'T MISS
Powered by
Reform triumphs to win three by-elections as Labour slumps to humiliating quadruple defeat
Comments
‘Incompetent' Keir Starmer blasted by historian for ‘worst start by Labour PM in 80 years'
249 Comments
Keir Starmer rinsed again by historian Anthony Seldon who warns ‘skates are under' PM
52 Comments
Reform UK are crushing the Tories - but that could spell danger for Nigel Farage
33 Comments
Labour minister torn apart on GB News with brutal nine-word poll question
5 Comments
Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe clash as both announce new Reform UK rivals on same day
160 Comments
Reform secures major new defection from ex-Tory in huge boost in Scotland
53 Comments
Rod Stewart sensationally backs Nigel Farage and blasts Starmer for ‘cutting off fishing'
531 Comments
Keir Starmer was always the Great Pretender, never a proper leader - and here's why
42 Comments
Reform UK keep on surging as Nigel Farage unveils very smart policy
81 Comments
‘Keir Starmer will be gone in a year' - and guess who's lining up to replace him
589 Comments
Weakened Keir Starmer now facing big Labour MP rebellion over family farm tax
459 Comments
Theresa May's ‘brain' Nick Timothy: We Tories let Britain down - here's how we fight back
51 Comments
‘Justifying the unjustifiable!' Labour torn to shreds by audience in brutal Question Time
168 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Nigel Farage nails it as he sums up perfectly why UK voters are eyeing Reform
567 Comments
Nigel Farage prepares Royal Navy for France migrant showdown under Reform government
1047 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Nigel Farage faces dramatic landslide election win in huge bombshell poll
121 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge boost for Reform after triple by-election triumph
55 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Humiliation for 'wounded' Keir Starmer as Angela Rayner allies say he'll be gone in a year
175 Comments
Nigel Farage on track to win 377 Reform seats in new mega poll with Labour decimated
700 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Reform triumphs to win three by-elections as Labour slumps to humiliating quadruple defeat
Comments
‘Incompetent' Keir Starmer blasted by historian for ‘worst start by Labour PM in 80 years'
249 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Keir Starmer rinsed again by historian Anthony Seldon who warns ‘skates are under' PM
52 Comments
Reform UK are crushing the Tories - but that could spell danger for Nigel Farage
33 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Labour minister torn apart on GB News with brutal nine-word poll question
5 Comments
Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe clash as both announce new Reform UK rivals on same day
160 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Reform secures major new defection from ex-Tory in huge boost in Scotland
53 Comments
Rod Stewart sensationally backs Nigel Farage and blasts Starmer for ‘cutting off fishing'
531 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Keir Starmer was always the Great Pretender, never a proper leader - and here's why
42 Comments
Reform UK keep on surging as Nigel Farage unveils very smart policy
81 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
‘Keir Starmer will be gone in a year' - and guess who's lining up to replace him
589 Comments
Weakened Keir Starmer now facing big Labour MP rebellion over family farm tax
459 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Theresa May's ‘brain' Nick Timothy: We Tories let Britain down - here's how we fight back
51 Comments
‘Justifying the unjustifiable!' Labour torn to shreds by audience in brutal Question Time
168 Comments
Nigel Farage nails it as he sums up perfectly why UK voters are eyeing Reform
567 Comments
Nigel Farage prepares Royal Navy for France migrant showdown under Reform government
1047 Comments
Nigel Farage faces dramatic landslide election win in huge bombshell poll
121 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge boost for Reform after triple by-election triumph
55 Comments
Humiliation for 'wounded' Keir Starmer as Angela Rayner allies say he'll be gone in a year
175 Comments
Nigel Farage on track to win 377 Reform seats in new mega poll with Labour decimated
700 Comments
Reform triumphs to win three by-elections as Labour slumps to humiliating quadruple defeat
Comments
‘Incompetent' Keir Starmer blasted by historian for ‘worst start by Labour PM in 80 years'
249 Comments
Keir Starmer rinsed again by historian Anthony Seldon who warns ‘skates are under' PM
52 Comments
Reform UK are crushing the Tories - but that could spell danger for Nigel Farage
33 Comments
Labour minister torn apart on GB News with brutal nine-word poll question
5 Comments
Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe clash as both announce new Reform UK rivals on same day
160 Comments
Reform secures major new defection from ex-Tory in huge boost in Scotland
53 Comments
The research was commissioned for a special investigation into whether Mr Farage can become prime minister for tonight’s edition of Channel 4’s Dispatches. Reform is in top position in successive opinion polls and is preparing for next year’s Scottish and Welsh parliament elections – with activists working towards the big ambition of replacing Sir Keir Starmer with Mr Farage in Number 10.
In tonight’s documentary, Mr Farage braces for attacks, saying: “You know, being ahead in politics in some ways is harder than being behind because everything’s going to get thrown at us. I guess our biggest enemy between now and next year and those elections will be ourselves.”
Powered By
00:00/00:58
10 Sec
60.5K
16
Angela Rayner acknowledges Labour MPs feel “disheartened and bruised”
Next
Stay
He says Reform has to “maintain a sensible degree of unity, of purpose, and we have to find high quality candidates”.
Sponsored
Dexcom | Sponsored Sponsored
Try Now
Discover Effortless Glucose Monitoring: Request a Free Trial
Undo
If Reform can sustain momentum it is highly likely there will be calls for the party to strike deal with the Conservatives before or after the next election.
READ MORE: New Reform UK chairman's confidence Nigel Farage will be PM
Reform UK scored a major victory last month when the party won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election (Image: Getty Images)
However, Mr Farage stamps on talk of a deal, telling the programme: “I only deal with people I trust. I don’t trust them.
“After 2019, I’ve no trust in them whatsoever. I think you’re witnessing the death of the party that’s been dominant for a couple of hundred years.”
But former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith points to the Conservatives’ 2010-2015 coalition with the Liberal Democrats, saying: “All coalitions are feasible at the end of the day.”
The polling of 2,000 people drills into the reasons the start-up party has surged in the opinion polls.
Mr Farage is the most popular national party leader in the country, with four out of 10 people approving of his leadership.
More than two-thirds (67%) of respondents said Reform says things others are afraid to say.
Reform commands the strongest voter loyalty. It has retained the support of 92% of people who voted for it last year – the highest of any major party.
More than one in five people who backed the Conservatives in July (21%) now plan to support Reform. This is true for 14% of people who voted Labour.
Reform positions which command strong support include intercepting and returning Channel migrants to France (65%), freezing non-essential immigration (56%) and raising income tax thresholds (56%)
The polling analysis states that “Reform UK’s appeal lies in its anti-establishment voice” but it says this is “tempered by worries about tone and extremism”.
Seven out of 10 participants in the research said Reform must “do more to avoid extreme candidates”. The polling suggest the country is evenly split on whether Reform is racist (42%).
A further challenge is projecting unity. Almost half of respondents (47%) said they believed Reform UK suffered from internal disagreements and infighting which could impact its effectiveness.
But when people were asked how they would vote if there was a general election tomorrow, Reform was in first place (27%), ahead of Labour (25%), the Conservatives (21%) and the Liberal Democrats (12%).
Don't miss...
Nigel Farage says he wants Iran's regime 'wiped out'
'Britain's future is bright but Rachel Reeves's tax hikes pose real threat'
Bombshell poll shows Reform voters have a soft spot for Boris Johnson
Keir Starmer blasts Nigel Farage as PM goes to war on Reform UK
Trending
SUBSCRIBE Invalid email
We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. Read our Privacy Policy
Former Conservative Leader of the Commons Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg says in the documentary that Mr Farage has the “great skill of understanding what the nation is thinking before they think it”.
Sir Jacob admits it is “hard to think of an occasion when the Tory Party has been in greater difficulty”.
DON'T MISS
Powered by
Reform triumphs to win three by-elections as Labour slumps to humiliating quadruple defeat
Comments
‘Incompetent' Keir Starmer blasted by historian for ‘worst start by Labour PM in 80 years'
249 Comments
Keir Starmer rinsed again by historian Anthony Seldon who warns ‘skates are under' PM
52 Comments
Reform UK are crushing the Tories - but that could spell danger for Nigel Farage
33 Comments
Labour minister torn apart on GB News with brutal nine-word poll question
5 Comments
Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe clash as both announce new Reform UK rivals on same day
160 Comments
Reform secures major new defection from ex-Tory in huge boost in Scotland
53 Comments
Rod Stewart sensationally backs Nigel Farage and blasts Starmer for ‘cutting off fishing'
531 Comments
Keir Starmer was always the Great Pretender, never a proper leader - and here's why
42 Comments
Reform UK keep on surging as Nigel Farage unveils very smart policy
81 Comments
‘Keir Starmer will be gone in a year' - and guess who's lining up to replace him
589 Comments
Weakened Keir Starmer now facing big Labour MP rebellion over family farm tax
459 Comments
Theresa May's ‘brain' Nick Timothy: We Tories let Britain down - here's how we fight back
51 Comments
‘Justifying the unjustifiable!' Labour torn to shreds by audience in brutal Question Time
168 Comments
Transform Your Space with Local Home BuilderHome Builder | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Nigel Farage nails it as he sums up perfectly why UK voters are eyeing Reform
567 Comments
Nigel Farage prepares Royal Navy for France migrant showdown under Reform government
1047 Comments
This New Ac Cools Down a Room in Seconds and is Taking Las Vegas by...Pubyfun | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Nigel Farage faces dramatic landslide election win in huge bombshell poll
121 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge boost for Reform after triple by-election triumph
55 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Humiliation for 'wounded' Keir Starmer as Angela Rayner allies say he'll be gone in a year
175 Comments
Nigel Farage on track to win 377 Reform seats in new mega poll with Labour decimated
700 Comments
Medical Mystery Solved: Dementia and Memory Loss Has Been Linked To This...Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Reform triumphs to win three by-elections as Labour slumps to humiliating quadruple defeat
Comments
‘Incompetent' Keir Starmer blasted by historian for ‘worst start by Labour PM in 80 years'
249 Comments
The Business Sneaker Loved by CEOs and NFL StarsWolf & Shepherd | Sponsored Sponsored
Shop Now
Undo
Keir Starmer rinsed again by historian Anthony Seldon who warns ‘skates are under' PM
52 Comments
Reform UK are crushing the Tories - but that could spell danger for Nigel Farage
33 Comments
Discover Effortless Glucose Monitoring: Request a Free TrialDexcom | Sponsored Sponsored
Try Now
Undo
Labour minister torn apart on GB News with brutal nine-word poll question
5 Comments
Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe clash as both announce new Reform UK rivals on same day
160 Comments
Find Out Why These Shoes Are Ridiculo usly ComfortableWolf & Shepherd | Sponsored Sponsored
Order Now
Undo
Reform secures major new defection from ex-Tory in huge boost in Scotland
53 Comments
Rod Stewart sensationally backs Nigel Farage and blasts Starmer for ‘cutting off fishing'
531 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Keir Starmer was always the Great Pretender, never a proper leader - and here's why
42 Comments
Reform UK keep on surging as Nigel Farage unveils very smart policy
81 Comments
Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It?Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
‘Keir Starmer will be gone in a year' - and guess who's lining up to replace him
589 Comments
Weakened Keir Starmer now facing big Labour MP rebellion over family farm tax
459 Comments
Medical Mystery Solved: Dementia and Memory Loss Has Been Linked To This...Memory Health | Sponsored Sponsored
Learn More
Undo
Theresa May's ‘brain' Nick Timothy: We Tories let Britain down - here's how we fight back
51 Comments
‘Justifying the unjustifiable!' Labour torn to shreds by audience in brutal Question Time
168 Comments
Nigel Farage nails it as he sums up perfectly why UK voters are eyeing Reform
567 Comments
Nigel Farage prepares Royal Navy for France migrant showdown under Reform government
1047 Comments
Nigel Farage faces dramatic landslide election win in huge bombshell poll
121 Comments
Nigel Farage hails huge boost for Reform after triple by-election triumph
55 Comments
Humiliation for 'wounded' Keir Starmer as Angela Rayner allies say he'll be gone in a year
175 Comments
Nigel Farage on track to win 377 Reform seats in new mega poll with Labour decimated
700 Comments
Reform triumphs to win three by-elections as Labour slumps to humiliating quadruple defeat
Comments
‘Incompetent' Keir Starmer blasted by historian for ‘worst start by Labour PM in 80 years'
249 Comments
Keir Starmer rinsed again by historian Anthony Seldon who warns ‘skates are under' PM
52 Comments
Reform UK are crushing the Tories - but that could spell danger for Nigel Farage
33 Comments
Labour minister torn apart on GB News with brutal nine-word poll question
5 Comments
Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe clash as both announce new Reform UK rivals on same day
160 Comments
Reform secures major new defection from ex-Tory in huge boost in Scotland
53 Comments
The Business Sneaker Loved by CEOs and NFL...Wolf & Shepherd
Undo
by Taboola by Taboola
Sponsored Links Sponsored Links
Promoted Links Promoted Links
This New AC Cooler Cools the Room In SecondsPubyfun
Undo
by Taboola by Taboola
Sponsored Links Sponsored Links
Promoted Links Promoted Links
This New Ac Cools Down a Room in Seconds an...Pubyfun
Undo
by Taboola by Taboola
Sponsored Links Sponsored Links
Promoted Links Promoted Links
Find Out Why These Shoes Are Ridiculously Co...Wolf & Shepherd
Undo
by Taboola by Taboola
Sponsored Links Sponsored Links
Promoted Links Promoted Links
In the programme, presented by former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson, Mr Farage defends his approach to combining his political and media careers.
“I’m unconventional,” he says. “I’m completely unconventional, I don’t obey the rules that everybody else obeys. I do things my way.”
Dispatches: Will Nigel Farage Be Prime Minister? airs tonight at 8pm on Channel 4.