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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that Rachel Reeves’s latest U-turns on spending cuts have left Britain more vulnerable and less able to respond to future crises. The OBR published a new report on the vulnerability of the public finances, warning that the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to surge from 94% today to a whopping 270% by the early 2070s.
It slams successive governments, arguing that efforts to put the country’s finances onto a more sustainable footing in recent years have “been met with only limited and temporary success”. However, Ms Reeves has come under fire over her handling of the economy, and recent spending U-turns on winter fuel payments and welfare. The report says the UK has been hit hard by the dual shocks of the Covid pandemic and energy crisis, and that the Government has responded “relatively generously by international standards” when spending money to bail out voters during these crises.
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Rachel Reeves's U-turns are bad news for the economy, warns the OBR (Image: Getty)
It adds: “But in the aftermath of the shocks, debt has also continued to rise and borrowing remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances.”
“Planned tax rises have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned.”
The OBR explains says this failure has substantially eroded the Government’s capacity to respond to future shocks and crises, such as another pandemic or global recession.
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Even more worryingly, it argues that voters have rising expectations about what the Chancellor can and should do in response to threats. They may therefore be underprepared to deal with a government that cannot afford to introduce costly schemes like furlough or energy price bailouts.
Shadow Chancellor, Mel Stride said: "While working families are tightening their belts, Labour have lost control of the public finances. The OBR’s report lays bare the damage: Britain now has the third-highest deficit and the fourth-highest debt burden in Europe, with borrowing costs among the highest in the developed world."
"Under Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement and Keir Starmer’s weak leadership, our public finances have become dangerously exposed - vulnerable to future shocks, welfare spending rising unsustainably, taxes rising to record highs and crippling levels of debt interest.
"Labour’s recklessness risks it all - your pension, your job, your home, your savings."
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Britain may be unable to deal with future crises, the OBR warns (Image: Getty)
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Forecasting further into the future, the worrying report projects that pensions are set to become a huge problem for the country, especially with the rising cost of the triple lock.
The cost of the state pension has shot up since the 1950s, when it cost around 2% of GDP. It is set to rise to 7.7% of GDP by the 2070s.
The OBR warns that the triple lock is costing around three times more than expected when introduced in 2012, when former chancellor George Osborne presumed that the cost would be around ￡5.2billion in 2029-30.
It is now expected to cost three times more – about ￡15.5 billion, putting its future into doubt.
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It concludes that due to an ageing population and the rising cost of healthcare, Britain’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to hit 270% by the early 2070s, up from around 94% today.
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Of 36 advanced economies measured in the report, the OBR says the UK already has the sixth-highest debt, the fifth-highest deficit, and the third-highest borrowing costs.
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We recognise the longstanding economic realities the OBR sets out in its report.”
“This is why we are committed to ensuring stability in the economy through our non-negotiable fiscal rules, which have allowed us to invest in the UK to drive a decade of renewal and put more money in people’s pockets.”