OPINION
Nigel Farage, Member of Parliament and Reform UK Leader (Image: Getty)
The good news keeps coming for Nigel Farage. Latest polling from YouGov has Reform UK 6 points clear of Labour (up from 2) while pollster Opinium has Reform 5 points ahead for the second time. Despite warnings of 'peak Reform', with Labour grandee Lord Mandelson the latest to warn of this, seemingly Farage's party is going nowhere.
As time marches on - and yes, the next election is likely four years away and much can change - the greater the possibility that Reform leads the next government. But make no mistake, Farage would face almighty hurdles enacting any manifesto commitments. The 'blob' Reform rails against would do everything in its power to obstruct and frustrate. Getting Reform's most radical measures through Parliament will be tough enough. Getting them enacted even tougher.
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As I have written before - and despite Reform's criticism of an unelected House of Lords - in the short-term it might be necessary for Reform to appoint a sizeable number of peers. Without a sympathetic upper house, Reform - even with a large Commons majority - could struggle to get many of its pledges through Parliament.
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If Farage is serious about having non-MPs in senior positions in government, appointing peers could at least guarantee those non-MPs have a presence in Parliament. Winning over the Sir Humphreys meanwhile will take a conciliatory and collegiate approach, a sympathetic media and strong communications from Reform HQ.
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Even if the civil service can be won over - or perhaps thwarted - big Reform policies will take time. Reform needs to manage expectations about how fast the ship can be turned around. Reform may detest the behaviour of the French when it comes to illegal migrants. But any successful policy will need the French to succeed. No, that doesn't necessitate Starmer-style surrender. But it does mean avoiding a two-fingers-up approach as well.
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Heavy handed tactics won't win hearts and minds in the blob. To act for the long term, Reform needs to be smart and pragmatic. I suspect Farage understands this better than some on the Brexit-supporting Right. A Reform government with Farage as PM is no longer the stuff of fantasy. It is Britain's certain future if the opinion polls hold. But for Reform to do exactly what it says on the tin will need a bit of softly, softly, catchee monkey.