Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Politics is a numbers game. Whether it’s counting votes, poll ratings, calculating budgets or seats in the house of Commons, it all comes down to numeracy.
Reform UK is a case in point. They might only have four MPs - one less than this time last year - but they’re arguably the most influential party in British politics right now. Just look at the numbers.
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Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
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They are leading the polls on around 30%, give or take one or two percentage points, well ahead of Labour’s 20% and the Tories on 17%.
Membership has rocketed to almost 240,000 - making it the UK’s second largest party behind Labour who have just over 300,000 paid up members, a number which is plummeting.
Its leader, Nigel Farage, has a dizzying following, at least six million people, on social media - TikTok, X, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram, dwarfing that of Keir Starmer and Kemi Badonoch.
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Reform has at least 500 constituency branches, 874 council seats across the UK, two regional mayors, countless defectors, mostly ex-Tories, and several women in high profile positions, countering what was once perceived as the party’s achilles heel.
It’s not just about their numbers either.
The number of migrant crossings, almost 30,000 in 2025 so far, is on record pace this year.
More than 170,000 people have arrived in Britain after crossing the Channel in dinghies since numbers were first collated in 2018.
Voters blame both the Tories and Labour for this, pushing them towards Reform.
Then there’s the doom-laden economic figures - growth is weak, unemployment and inflation are on the rise and Rachel Reeves is scrambling to fill a ￡50 billion black hole.
The numbers on all fronts are favouring Farage’s party.
The rise of Reform during the past year or so has been truly remarkable.
And this will be showcased at their two-day annual conference in Birmingham next week.
Again, just look at the numbers.
Attendees, just 1,000 in 2023 and 4,000 last year are expected to smash through the 5,000 barrier this time.
Around 20,000 people are expected at Labour’s four-day political jamboree in Liverpool later this month while the Tories can expect up to 12,000 when they host their event, Mrs Badnoch’s first as leader, in October.
It’s no wonder that other parties and politicians focus on Farage and Reform so much.
The Prime Minister has admitted that he regards them as the “real opposition” now, even though the Conservatives have 188 MPs.
Not a week goes by in Prime Minister’s Questions without Sir Keir aiming barbs at the Reform quartet.
In a speech this week, Cabinet Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds repeatedly took pot shots at Farage.
It came after a summer in which he and his party have dominated the political limelight.
Since parliament rose on July 22, traditionally known as the "silly season" when politics grinds to a halt barring unexpected emergencies, Reform has largely set the agenda.
Chiefly on migration but also crime and cracking down local government inefficiencies.
Reform's conference, at the National Exhibition Centre on September 5 and 6, will be a far cry from the traditional events held by the Brexit Party, as Reform used to be known, or UKIP, the separate party once led by Farage, which resembled rallies focused entirely on the leader's speech.
There will be panel discussions on the main stage and an exhibition hall will provide an opportunity for businesses to have a presence - bringing in revenue for the party as well as adding to its credibility.
“This year will be bigger than ever before, it will be noticeable,” said an insider.
The choice of venue is deliberate.
Conservatives often hold their conferences at the International Convention Centre in the heart of the city but Reform has chosen the National Exhibition Centre on the outskirts of nearby Solihull.
This is a 20-minute drive to Birmingham city centre - meaning attendees, including the media, are more likely to spend their evenings at conference-related events or the small selection of nearby hotel bars.
Nigel Farage, Sarah Pochin and Laila Cunningham (Image: Getty)
Some of the most important work, however, is taking place behind the scenes, as Reform draws up detailed policy proposals designed to show it can be a credible party of government.
A new pro-Reform think-tank, similar to those linked to Labour or the Conservatives, will be at the NEC.
The Centre for a Better Britain (CBB), was launched earlier this year by Reform's former chief operating officer Jonathan Brown and two of the party's biggest donors.
It will officially publish its first policy paper on energy and net zero next month.
Those involved in setting up the think tank, which was originally called Resolute 1850, had met with leader Farage and Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice as part of their preparations.
Both Reform and the think tank have offices in the same Westminster building, Millbank Tower.
Reform insists it has no formal ties with CBB and is creating policy in-house, however.
The think tank has reportedly hired Archie Manners, a comedian and YouTube star, to provide social media and communications advice.
This year’s conference is another staging post on what Reform regards as their ascent towards winning the next general election, expected in 2029.
Elections in Wales, Scotland and more English councils in 2026 are expected to be the next seismic moment for the party.
Reform believes it is in with a chance of gaining control of the Welsh Assembly, which has been Labour-run since the devolved government was created 26 years ago, and Farage has been and will continue to make regular visits.
A manifesto for Wales will cover the full range of policy areas, and along with a manifesto for Scotland - where Reform believes it could come second - will signal the direction the party's general election will take when the time comes.
The goal is to persuade voters that the Tories are finished and the only way to kick out Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party at the next election is to vote for them.
Local elections in 2027, when more than 7,000 council seats in England are up for grabs, could be another turning point.
If Reform once again makes major gains at the expense of the Conservatives, as it did in this year's poll, strategists believe it will cement itself in voters' minds as the real opposition.
Another poll this week from leading pollster FindOutNow puts all this into perspective.
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It predicted that if there were a general election tomorrow, Reform UK would achieve 34% of the vote - more than the combined 33% of Labour and the Conservatives.
The Electoral Calculus website predicts this would give Reform 407 seats and a majority of 164.
It’s all about the numbers.
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