In what may prove to be a remarkably consequential election for deputy leader of the Labour Party, there is a clear – and increasingly factional – choice between Bridget Phillipson, who was not sacked in the recent reshuffle, and Lucy Powell, who was.
In truth, having both served in Starmer’s cabinet and shadow cabinet uncomplainingly for years, there’s not much in strict policy terms to divide them. But that kind of thing has never stopped the Labour Party from engaging in bitter internecine disputes.
How is the Labour deputy leadership contest stacking up?
Phillipson leads on MP nominations with 175, against 117 for Powell. Bell Ribeiro-Addy, the nearest thing to a proper socialist, received just 20 and was knocked out. Others, who failed to reach the threshold of 80 to go to the next stage, were Emily Thornberry (undecided about whom to back now), Paula Barker (pro-Powell) and Alison McGovern (supporting Phillipson).
Philipson and Powell will also need the backing of some constituency parties and unions to go through, which should prove a formality. The election will be determined by the party’s roughly 300,000 members, generally to the left of the leadership, and at the moment rather disgruntled with it.
What are the Labour factions?
Andy Burnham has just started one – Mainstream – which is a cover organisation for the Burnham-Powell splitters. Otherwise, in terms of MPs, according to Labour List, a majority of MPs in the Labour Growth Group, Get Britain Working Group, Blue Labour, the Living Standards Coalition and Labour YIMBY are now backing Bridget Phillipson, with Lucy Powell leading among MPs affiliated with the Labour Rural Research Group. The Socialist Campaign Group was split, with 14 MPs backing Bell Ribeiro-Addy and three supporting Paula Barker – they and those who think like them will tend to vote for Powell.
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What about the trade unions?
Sharon Graham, leader of Unite, the second-biggest union, has made no secret of her frustration with Starmer, though Phillipson enjoyed a warm reception at a recent conference. But there are no bloc votes these days – it’s all one member, one vote.
Who is more left-wing?
Neither would be the fair answer. Their voting record and any sensible analysis of their attitudes show there’s really not that much between them, with Powell just shading it for her “socialist” credentials. As someone closer to Ed Miliband than Starmer (she was a co-chair of Miliband’s failed 2015 “EdStone” election campaign), Powell should pick up the inchoate anti-Starmer protest vote and the support of left-wingers who might otherwise hold her politics in contempt – though some will abstain.
Who is backing whom?
Most of the cabinet and ministerial ranks have obeyed the leadership’s suggested self-denying ordinance not to overtly back any candidate, as has Angela Rayner.
However, some have broken ranks and both candidates have some notable backers. For Phillipson, these include: Pat McFadden, Douglas Alexander, Torsten Bell, Emma Reynolds, Steve Reed, Dan Jarvis, Stephen Timms, Keir Mather, Georgia Gould, Luke Pollard, Marie Tidball, Preet Kaur Gill and Mike Tapp. On that basis, she is very much the Starmer establishment candidate and with solid right-of-Labour backing.
But Powell can also boast a few big names: Ed Miliband, Stephen Kinnock, Rosena Allin-Khan, Angela Eagle, Maria Eagle, Kim Leadbeater, Rupa Huq, Louise Haigh, and Justin Madders... plus, of course, the man who got the Powell bandwagon rolling last week, Andy Burnham.
Is Andy Burnham on manoeuvres?
Some believe so, despite protestations, and thus there is a danger that this election will degenerate into a proxy contest between Starmer and Burnham. In a worst-case scenario, that could ultimately lead to a challenge to Starmer’s leadership. If Phillipson loses heavily, it would be a hefty blow for Starmer; a narrow loss to Powell would be more survivable but she’d still be a nuisance as an internal shop steward for the Labour movement.
Has Burnham thought it through?
No. He can’t be leader unless he’s an MP, and even the safest Labour seat is currently highly vulnerable to Reform UK. The more he succeeds, the more likely it is that Labour will lose the next election, and his career will end in Salford.
How can Powell win?
By maximising the protest vote and promising to be a voice for the membership, but not being so disloyal that she looks as if she’d wreck the government.
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How can Phillipson win?
By being just independent-minded enough to reassure loyal members that she’s not a Starmer puppet but rather an influential voice of reason within. In other words, broadly following Blessed Angela’s example.
Who will win?
Hard to tell. It could be as close as Healey vs Benn in 1981 (and there are other strong parallels). The bookies put Phillipson slightly ahead on 4-5 (and drifting), and Powell on evens (and tightening).