The key task for the Belarusian economy inthe medium term isreforms aimed atpreserving and modernising the industrial potential ofBelarus. Weare not talking about aradical breakdown ofthe economic system— itisnecessary toprogressively modernise economic management, change legislation and unify itwi

Russia throughout the entire post-Soviet period has played aneconomically huge but politically disproportionately small role inthe life ofthe former Soviet republics. The preservation ofthe economy and sovereignty ofthese countries depended and depends onties with Russia.

The Belarusian leader faces two basic scenarios, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev. The first isto“swallow” Western sanctions, tokeep alow profile and, atleast temporarily, not tocarry out similar demarches.

Despite the visceral opposition tothe Belarusian leader and the country’s political system, the West ishardly eager tostrengthen Russia’s position inrelations with Belarus, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev. This would deprive the Belarusian leadership ofroom for manoeuvre inits d

The stake ismade onthe destabilisation ofthe economic underpinnings ofthe existing political system. For Russia, the potential destabilisation ofBelarus poses asecurity challenge that could exacerbate its already difficult relationship with the West, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timof